Actual result
D+7.2
Final polls said
D+9.8
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DHM Research | D+9.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+9.3 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+4.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Clout Research | D+11.1 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Riley Research Associates | D+14.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyMonkey | D+15.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1595 | D+15.0 | 8 |
| Clout Research | 2016-11-03 | 981 | D+11.1 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 743 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| DHM Research | 2016-10-27 | 504 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| Clout Research | 2016-10-20 | 928 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-11 | 654 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| DHM Research | 2016-10-10 | 600 | D+13.0 | 6 |
| Riley Research Associates | 2016-10-09 | 608 | D+14.0 | 7 |