Actual result
D+8.8
Final polls said
D+10.8
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+7.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leger | D+9.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+7.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Strategies 360 | D+10.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+7.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+6.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Elway Research | D+12.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyMonkey | D+13.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leger | 2016-11-05 | 402 | D+9.0 | 0 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1451 | D+13.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-11-01 | 667 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 745 | D+13.0 | 4 |
| Elway Research | 2016-10-21 | 502 | D+12.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-10 | 750 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Strategies 360 | 2016-10-01 | 500 | D+10.0 | 1 |