Actual result
R+14.7
Final polls said
R+4.9
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+8.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | R+17.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+8.1 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Alaska Survey Research | R+5.5 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gravis Marketing | R+3.0 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Moore Information Group | R+3.0 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Lake Research Partners | R+1.0 | 13.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | R+0.3 | 14.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Craciun Research Group | D+4.0 | 18.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 96% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 3 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | New York Times | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-05 | 617 | R+3.0 | 12 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 409 | R+17.0 | 2 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 300 | R+8.0 | 7 |
| Craciun Research Group | 2016-10-23 | 400 | D+4.0 | 19 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 201 | R+0.3 | 14 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2016-10-12 | 500 | R+1.0 | 14 |
| Moore Information Group | 2016-10-05 | 500 | R+3.0 | 12 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2016-09-30 | 660 | R+5.5 | 9 |
| Moore Information Group | 2016-09-14 | 500 | R+8.0 | 7 |