Toss-up · 2016 President

Alaska President

In the 2016 Alaska President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 15 points.

Actual result

R+14.7

Final polls said

R+4.9

5 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	SurveyMonkey	R+17.0	2.3	✓
2	Alaska Survey Research	R+5.5	9.2	✓
3	Gravis Marketing	R+3.0	11.7	✓
4	Moore Information Group	R+3.0	11.7	✓
5	Lake Research Partners	R+1.0	13.7	✓
6	YouGov	R+0.3	14.4	✓
7	Craciun Research Group	D+4.0	18.7	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Inside Elections	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 97%	0.001	✓
3	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 96%	0.002	✓
4	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
5	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
6	New York Times	Rep 83%	0.029	✓
7	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 79%	0.044	✓