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Toss-up · 2016 President
Alaska President
In the 2016 Alaska President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 15 points.
Actual result
R+14.7
Final polls said
R+4.9
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | R+17.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Alaska Survey Research | R+5.5 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gravis Marketing | R+3.0 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Moore Information Group | R+3.0 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Lake Research Partners | R+1.0 | 13.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | R+0.3 | 14.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Craciun Research Group | D+4.0 | 18.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 3 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | New York Times | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Gravis Marketing2016-11-0512
SurveyMonkey2016-11-042
SurveyMonkey2016-10-287
Craciun Research Group2016-10-2319
YouGov2016-10-2014
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Alaska President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 14.7 points (R+14.7).
When was the 2016 Alaska President election held?
It was held in November 2016.