Actual result
R+27.7
Final polls said
R+19.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+22.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+22.7 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+21.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | R+19.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Ipsos | R+16.1 | 11.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Strategy Research | R+16.0 | 11.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1131 | R+19.0 | 9 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 328 | R+16.1 | 12 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 485 | R+20.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 1388 | R+21.0 | 7 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 482 | R+14.0 | 14 |
| Strategy Research | 2016-09-27 | 3000 | R+16.0 | 12 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-22 | 312 | R+18.5 | 9 |