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Toss-up · 2016 President
Arkansas President
In the 2016 Arkansas President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 27 points.
Actual result
R+26.9
Final polls said
R+18.8
6 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+28.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | R+24.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Hendrix College | R+23.5 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | R+19.8 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | R+17.5 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Ipsos | R+15.2 | 11.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
10 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-043
SurveyMonkey2016-10-2814
Ipsos2016-10-2712
University of Arkansas Department of Political Science2016-10-227
Hendrix College2016-10-213
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Arkansas President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 26.9 points (R+26.9).
When was the 2016 Arkansas President election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.