Actual result
R+26.9
Final polls said
R+18.8
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+23.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+28.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | R+24.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+23.8 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Hendrix College | R+23.5 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | R+19.8 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | R+17.5 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Ipsos | R+15.2 | 11.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 930 | R+24.0 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 484 | R+13.0 | 14 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-27 | 331 | R+15.2 | 12 |
| University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | 2016-10-22 | 585 | R+19.8 | 7 |
| Hendrix College | 2016-10-21 | 463 | R+23.5 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 736 | R+17.5 | 9 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-03 | 314 | R+16.8 | 10 |
| Hendrix College | 2016-09-16 | 831 | R+21.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-12 | 280 | R+8.1 | 19 |
| Emerson College | 2016-09-11 | 600 | R+28.0 | 1 |