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Toss-up · 2016 President
Arkansas President
In the 2016 Arkansas President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 27 points.
Actual result
R+26.9
Final polls said
R+18.8
6 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+28.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | R+24.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Hendrix College | R+23.5 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | R+19.8 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | R+17.5 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Ipsos | R+15.2 | 11.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
10 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-043
SurveyMonkey2016-10-2814
Ipsos2016-10-2712
University of Arkansas Department of Political Science2016-10-227
Hendrix College2016-10-213
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Arkansas President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 26.9 points (R+26.9).
When was the 2016 Arkansas President election held?
It was held in November 2016.