Actual result
R+3.5
Final polls said
R+2.5
20 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+4.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Data Orbital | R+3.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | R+4.7 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+4.8 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Marist College | R+5.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Big Village | R+5.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Gravis Marketing | R+2.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Leger | R+2.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | YouGov | R+2.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Lucid | R+1.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+1.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | Noble Predictive Insights | EVEN | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 13 | Uplift Campaigns | D+1.0 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 14 | HighGround Inc. | D+2.0 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 15 | SurveyMonkey | D+3.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
| 16 | Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | D+5.6 | 9.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 84% | 0.025 | ✓ |
| 3 | New York Times | Rep 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 67% | 0.109 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
Polls (31)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-05 | 1453 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Leger | 2016-11-05 | 392 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Data Orbital | 2016-11-05 | 550 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 2609 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| Data Orbital | 2016-11-01 | 550 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-31 | 719 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 593 | R+4.7 | 1 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-30 | 1113 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-30 | 700 | R+4.0 | 0 |
| Uplift Campaigns | 2016-10-30 | 2229 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Big Village | 2016-10-29 | 769 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| Data Orbital | 2016-10-29 | 550 | R+4.0 | 0 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1457 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-27 | 994 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Data Orbital | 2016-10-26 | 550 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-23 | 401 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Uplift Campaigns | 2016-10-23 | 2385 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 1567 | R+8.5 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-17 | 300 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Data Orbital | 2016-10-17 | 550 | EVEN | 4 |
| HighGround Inc. | 2016-10-14 | 400 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 1028 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy | 2016-10-12 | 713 | D+5.6 | 9 |
| Data Orbital | 2016-10-11 | 550 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 883 | R+5.6 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-03 | 600 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2016-09-29 | 718 | EVEN | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-29 | 617 | R+6.8 | 3 |
| Data Orbital | 2016-09-21 | 550 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-15 | 428 | R+6.2 | 3 |
| Leger | 2016-09-13 | 484 | R+4.0 | 0 |