Toss-up · 2016 President

Arizona President

In the 2016 Arizona President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 4 points.

Actual result

R+3.5

Final polls said

R+2.5

20 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	R+4.0	0.5	✓
2	Data Orbital	R+3.0	0.5	✓
3	Ipsos	R+4.7	1.2	✓
4	Marist College	R+5.0	1.5	✓
5	Big Village	R+5.0	1.5	✓
6	Gravis Marketing	R+2.0	1.5	✓
7	Leger	R+2.0	1.5	✓
8	YouGov	R+2.0	1.5	✓
9	Lucid	R+1.0	2.5	✓
10	Monmouth University Polling Institute	R+1.0	2.5	✓
11	Noble Predictive Insights	EVEN	3.5	✗
12	Uplift Campaigns	D+1.0	4.5	✗
13	HighGround Inc.	D+2.0	5.5	✗
14	SurveyMonkey	D+3.0	6.5	✗
15	Arizona State University Morrison Institute for Public Policy	D+5.6	9.1	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 91%	0.008	✓
2	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 85%	0.022	✓
3	New York Times	Rep 84%	0.026	✓
4	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
5	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
6	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 67%	0.109	✓
7	Inside Elections	Rep 60%	0.160	✓