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Toss-up · 2016 President
California President
In the 2016 California President race, Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won by about 30 points.
Actual result
D+30.1
Final polls said
D+26.3
11 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ipsos | D+27.1 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+26.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | D+25.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | California State University, Sacramento | D+36.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint | D+24.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Leger | D+23.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | D+21.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | YouGov | D+20.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
24 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Leger2016-11-057
SurveyMonkey2016-11-045
Ipsos2016-11-033
SurveyUSA2016-10-309
YouGov2016-10-2810
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 California President race?
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won, by about 30.1 points (D+30.1).
When was the 2016 California President election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.