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Toss-up · 2016 President
California President
In the 2016 California President race, Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won by about 30 points.
Actual result
D+30.1
Final polls said
D+26.3
11 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ipsos | D+27.1 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+26.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | D+25.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | California State University, Sacramento | D+36.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint | D+24.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Leger | D+23.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | D+21.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | YouGov | D+20.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
24 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Leger2016-11-057
SurveyMonkey2016-11-045
Ipsos2016-11-033
SurveyUSA2016-10-309
YouGov2016-10-2810
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 California President race?
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won, by about 30.1 points (D+30.1).
When was the 2016 California President election held?
It was held in November 2016.