Actual result
D+30.1
Final polls said
D+26.3
11 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+28.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+28.8 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ipsos | D+27.1 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+26.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | D+25.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | California State University, Sacramento | D+36.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint | D+24.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Leger | D+23.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | SurveyUSA | D+21.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | YouGov | D+20.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (24)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leger | 2016-11-05 | 401 | D+23.0 | 7 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 2712 | D+25.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-11-03 | 726 | D+27.1 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-30 | 747 | D+21.0 | 9 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-28 | 1498 | D+20.0 | 10 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 2505 | D+25.0 | 5 |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint | 2016-10-26 | 1382 | D+24.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-24 | 712 | D+39.0 | 9 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 8746 | D+21.4 | 9 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2016-10-18 | 1024 | D+26.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-17 | 503 | D+38.2 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-14 | 725 | D+26.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 553 | D+43.5 | 13 |
| California State University, Sacramento | 2016-10-10 | 622 | D+36.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-09 | 1250 | D+24.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-03 | 974 | D+33.4 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-09-27 | 723 | D+26.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-26 | 787 | D+39.9 | 10 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-19 | 705 | D+31.6 | 2 |
| Leger | 2016-09-13 | 515 | D+27.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2016-09-13 | 1055 | D+16.0 | 14 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-12 | 577 | D+38.3 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2016-09-10 | 1426 | D+17.0 | 13 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-09-10 | 678 | D+25.0 | 5 |