Toss-up · 2016 President

Colorado President

In the 2016 Colorado President race, Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won by about 5 points.

Actual result

D+4.9

Final polls said

D+3.5

18 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Public Policy Polling	D+5.0	0.1	✓
2	Keating Research	D+5.0	0.1	✓
3	Ipsos	D+5.4	0.5	✓
4	Magellan Strategies	D+6.5	1.6	✓
5	SurveyMonkey	D+3.0	1.9	✓
6	Emerson College	D+3.0	1.9	✓
7	YouGov	D+3.0	1.9	✓
8	Lucid	D+7.0	2.1	✓
9	Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research	D+7.0	2.1	✓
10	Quinnipiac University	D+8.0	3.1	✓
11	Gravis Marketing	D+1.0	3.9	✓
12	Remington Research Group	D+1.0	3.9	✓
13	Trafalgar Group	D+0.4	4.5	✓
14	Ciruli Associates	EVEN	4.9	✗
15	University of Colorado American Politics Research Lab	D+10.0	5.1	✓
16	Big Village	R+1.0	5.9	✗
17	Monmouth University Polling Institute	D+11.0	6.1	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
2	Inside Elections	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
3	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
4	New York Times	Dem 89%	0.012	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 78%	0.048	✓
6	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
7	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 74%	0.069	✓