Actual result
D+4.9
Final polls said
D+3.5
18 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Keating Research | D+5.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | D+5.4 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Magellan Strategies | D+6.5 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+3.2 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyMonkey | D+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Emerson College | D+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Lucid | D+7.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+7.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | Quinnipiac University | D+8.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 12 | Gravis Marketing | D+1.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 13 | Remington Research Group | D+1.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 14 | Trafalgar Group | D+0.4 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 15 | Ciruli Associates | EVEN | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 16 | University of Colorado American Politics Research Lab | D+10.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 17 | Big Village | R+1.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 18 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+11.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Dem 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 78% | 0.048 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 75% | 0.061 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (35)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-05 | 1378 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 2777 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-11-03 | 704 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Keating Research | 2016-11-02 | 605 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2016-11-02 | 1150 | D+0.4 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-01 | 1125 | EVEN | 5 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-11-01 | 1863 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2016-11-01 | 500 | D+6.5 | 2 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2016-10-30 | 550 | EVEN | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 536 | D+5.4 | 0 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-30 | 972 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-30 | 750 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-30 | 952 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1532 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-27 | 997 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| University of Colorado American Politics Research Lab | 2016-10-21 | 1004 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-21 | 1581 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 1556 | D+5.2 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-13 | 445 | D+3.8 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-13 | 685 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 956 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2016-10-12 | 500 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-12 | 1226 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-03 | 1246 | EVEN | 5 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-01 | 400 | D+11.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-29 | 552 | R+0.1 | 5 |
| Keating Research | 2016-09-28 | 602 | D+11.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-09-27 | 694 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2016-09-22 | 991 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Big Village | 2016-09-22 | 784 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-09-22 | 799 | R+4.0 | 9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-09-17 | 644 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2016-09-16 | 350 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-15 | 391 | R+1.8 | 7 |
| Emerson College | 2016-09-11 | 600 | R+4.0 | 9 |