Actual result
D+11.4
Final polls said
D+14.4
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | D+11.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+14.4 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | D+15.6 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+19.1 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | University of Delaware Center for Political Communication | D+21.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | New York Times | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 367 | D+11.0 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 138 | D+15.6 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 458 | D+12.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 260 | D+19.1 | 8 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 121 | D+13.9 | 3 |
| University of Delaware Center for Political Communication | 2016-09-22 | 762 | D+21.0 | 10 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-19 | 124 | D+7.9 | 3 |