Toss-up · 2016 President

Delaware President

In the 2016 Delaware President race, Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won by about 11 points.

Actual result

D+11.4

Final polls said

D+14.4

4 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	SurveyMonkey	D+11.0	0.4	✓
2	Ipsos	D+15.6	4.2	✓
3	YouGov	D+19.1	7.7	✓
4	University of Delaware Center for Political Communication	D+21.0	9.6	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Cook Political	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	New York Times	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
4	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
5	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
6	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
7	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 92%	0.006	✓