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Toss-up · 2016 President
Florida President
In the 2016 Florida President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 1 point.
Actual result
R+1.2
Final polls said
D+1.5
40 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suffolk University | R+1.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Selzer & Co. | R+2.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | EVEN | 1.2 | ✗ |
| 4 | Remington Research Group | R+3.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Ipsos | D+0.9 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 6 | Dixie Strategies | R+3.3 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Quinnipiac University | D+1.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 8 | Gravis Marketing | D+1.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 9 | Emerson College | D+1.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 10 | Marist College | D+1.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 11 | Trafalgar Group | R+3.6 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 12 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 13 | InsiderAdvantage | D+2.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 14 | SurveyMonkey | D+2.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 15 | Rasmussen Reports | D+2.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 16 | Big Village | D+2.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 17 | Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | D+2.9 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 18 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 19 | The Tyson Group | D+3.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 20 | Global Strategy Group | D+3.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 21 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 22 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | D+4.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 23 | Cherry Communications | D+4.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 24 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+4.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 25 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+5.0 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 26 | Lucid | D+6.0 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 27 | TargetSmart | D+8.0 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 28 | Saint Leo University Polling Institute | D+14.3 | 15.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 51% | 0.242 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 5 | New York Times | Dem 67% | 0.449 | ✗ |
| 6 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 69% | 0.476 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
67 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Trafalgar Group2016-11-062
Quinnipiac University2016-11-052
InsiderAdvantage2016-11-053
SurveyMonkey2016-11-043
Rasmussen Reports2016-11-043
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Florida President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 1.2 points (R+1.2).
When was the 2016 Florida President election held?
It was held in November 2016.