Actual result
R+1.2
Final polls said
D+1.5
40 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+0.3
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suffolk University | R+1.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Selzer & Co. | R+2.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | EVEN | 1.2 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+0.3 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | Remington Research Group | R+3.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Ipsos | D+0.9 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 7 | Dixie Strategies | R+3.3 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Quinnipiac University | D+1.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 9 | Gravis Marketing | D+1.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 10 | Emerson College | D+1.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 11 | Marist College | D+1.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 12 | Trafalgar Group | R+3.6 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 13 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+4.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 14 | InsiderAdvantage | D+2.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 15 | SurveyMonkey | D+2.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 16 | Rasmussen Reports | D+2.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 17 | Big Village | D+2.0 | 3.2 | ✗ |
| 18 | Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | D+2.9 | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 19 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 20 | The Tyson Group | D+3.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 21 | Global Strategy Group | D+3.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 22 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 23 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | D+4.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 24 | Cherry Communications | D+4.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 25 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+4.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 26 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+5.0 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 27 | Lucid | D+6.0 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 28 | TargetSmart | D+8.0 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 29 | Saint Leo University Polling Institute | D+14.3 | 15.5 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Dem 51% | 0.263 | ✗ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 5 | New York Times | Dem 67% | 0.449 | ✗ |
| 6 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 69% | 0.476 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (67)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 2016-11-06 | 1100 | R+3.6 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-11-05 | 884 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2016-11-05 | 843 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 4092 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-11-04 | 525 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2016-11-03 | 1188 | EVEN | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2016-11-03 | 888 | D+0.9 | 2 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-11-01 | 2352 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-01 | 1220 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2016-11-01 | 603 | D+4.3 | 6 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-31 | 1195 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-31 | 525 | EVEN | 1 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-30 | 989 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2016-10-29 | 1150 | R+3.9 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-29 | 626 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2016-10-29 | 773 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 2809 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| TargetSmart | 2016-10-27 | 718 | D+8.0 | 9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-26 | 525 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2016-10-26 | 815 | R+4.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-26 | 500 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-25 | 742 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-25 | 779 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-25 | 1301 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Dixie Strategies | 2016-10-25 | 698 | R+3.3 | 2 |
| Saint Leo University Polling Institute | 2016-10-24 | 1028 | D+14.3 | 16 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-24 | 804 | D+3.9 | 5 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2016-10-23 | 805 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | 2016-10-22 | 500 | D+2.9 | 4 |
| University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | 2016-10-22 | 819 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-22 | 1251 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-21 | 875 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-21 | 1646 | EVEN | 1 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 5371 | D+1.1 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2016-10-20 | 538 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 1042 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| The Tyson Group | 2016-10-19 | 1000 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Cherry Communications | 2016-10-18 | 507 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-17 | 631 | D+3.6 | 5 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-17 | 892 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-13 | 660 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-12 | 1799 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 1702 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-12 | 985 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2016-10-10 | 533 | D+2.8 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 1019 | D+5.8 | 7 |
| Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | 2016-10-07 | 400 | D+5.7 | 7 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-04 | 700 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| The Tyson Group | 2016-10-04 | 1000 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-04 | 821 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-03 | 979 | D+4.8 | 6 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-03 | 600 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | 2016-10-01 | 686 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-09-29 | 545 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2016-09-28 | 619 | D+0.3 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2016-09-28 | 820 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-09-27 | 826 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-26 | 701 | D+1.1 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2016-09-20 | 500 | R+1.0 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-19 | 811 | D+3.9 | 5 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-09-18 | 400 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| Cherry Communications | 2016-09-17 | 617 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Saint Leo University Polling Institute | 2016-09-13 | 475 | D+5.8 | 7 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-12 | 722 | R+3.5 | 2 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2016-09-12 | 867 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2016-09-09 | 788 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2016-09-08 | 800 | D+3.0 | 4 |