Toss-up · 2016 President

Florida President

In the 2016 Florida President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 1 point.

Actual result

R+1.2

Final polls said

D+1.5

40 late polls · ✗

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Suffolk University	R+1.0	0.2	✓
2	Selzer & Co.	R+2.0	0.8	✓
3	YouGov	EVEN	1.2	✗
4	Remington Research Group	R+3.0	1.8	✓
5	Ipsos	D+0.9	2.1	✗
6	Dixie Strategies	R+3.3	2.1	✓
7	Quinnipiac University	D+1.0	2.2	✗
8	Gravis Marketing	D+1.0	2.2	✗
9	Emerson College	D+1.0	2.2	✗
10	Marist College	D+1.0	2.2	✗
11	Trafalgar Group	R+3.6	2.4	✓
12	The New York Times/Siena College	R+4.0	2.8	✓
13	InsiderAdvantage	D+2.0	3.2	✗
14	SurveyMonkey	D+2.0	3.2	✗
15	Rasmussen Reports	D+2.0	3.2	✗
16	Big Village	D+2.0	3.2	✗
17	Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative	D+2.9	4.1	✗
18	SurveyUSA	D+3.0	4.2	✗
19	The Tyson Group	D+3.0	4.2	✗
20	Global Strategy Group	D+3.0	4.2	✗
21	Public Policy Polling	D+4.0	5.2	✗
22	University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab	D+4.0	5.2	✗
23	Cherry Communications	D+4.0	5.2	✗
24	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	D+4.0	5.2	✗
25	Monmouth University Polling Institute	D+5.0	6.2	✗
26	Lucid	D+6.0	7.2	✗
27	TargetSmart	D+8.0	9.2	✗
28	Saint Leo University Polling Institute	D+14.3	15.5	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 51%	0.242	✓
2	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
3	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 55%	0.303	✗
4	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.360	✗
5	New York Times	Dem 67%	0.449	✗
6	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 69%	0.476	✗
7	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.562	✗