Toss-up · 2016 President

Georgia President

In the 2016 Georgia President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 5 points.

Actual result

R+5.1

Final polls said

R+3.4

21 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Ipsos	R+5.4	0.3	✓
2	YouGov	R+6.0	0.9	✓
3	JMC Analytics	R+6.0	0.9	✓
4	Gravis Marketing	R+4.0	1.1	✓
5	Landmark Communications	R+4.0	1.1	✓
6	InsiderAdvantage	R+3.8	1.3	✓
7	Trafalgar Group	R+6.5	1.3	✓
8	SurveyUSA	R+7.0	1.9	✓
9	Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone Communications	R+3.0	2.1	✓
10	20/20 Insight	R+3.0	2.1	✓
11	Monmouth University Polling Institute	R+3.0	2.1	✓
12	Clout Research	R+2.7	2.4	✓
13	Abt Associates	R+2.0	3.1	✓
14	Emerson College	R+9.0	3.9	✓
15	Marist College	R+1.0	4.1	✓
16	Quinnipiac University	R+1.0	4.1	✓
17	SurveyMonkey	EVEN	5.1	✗
18	Lucid	D+4.0	9.1	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 91%	0.009	✓
2	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
3	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 88%	0.014	✓
4	New York Times	Rep 83%	0.029	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 81%	0.036	✓
6	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
7	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓