Actual result
R+5.1
Final polls said
R+3.4
21 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ipsos | R+5.4 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+5.9 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+6.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | JMC Analytics | R+6.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Gravis Marketing | R+4.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Landmark Communications | R+4.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | InsiderAdvantage | R+3.8 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | Trafalgar Group | R+6.5 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | SurveyUSA | R+7.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone Communications | R+3.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | 20/20 Insight | R+3.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 12 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+3.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 13 | Clout Research | R+2.7 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 14 | Abt Associates | R+2.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 15 | Emerson College | R+9.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 16 | Marist College | R+1.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 17 | Quinnipiac University | R+1.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 18 | SurveyMonkey | EVEN | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 19 | Lucid | D+4.0 | 9.1 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 3 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Rep 83% | 0.029 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 81% | 0.036 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (32)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone Communications | 2016-11-06 | 1200 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2016-11-06 | 1250 | R+6.5 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-05 | 2002 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2016-11-04 | 995 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| 20/20 Insight | 2016-11-04 | 541 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 2419 | EVEN | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-11-03 | 416 | R+5.4 | 0 |
| Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone Communications | 2016-11-03 | 1000 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2016-11-02 | 538 | R+3.8 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-31 | 707 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-30 | 650 | R+9.0 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 2665 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-26 | 683 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-23 | 707 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-20 | 583 | R+4.7 | 0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2016-10-20 | 570 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Landmark Communications | 2016-10-20 | 600 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 2663 | R+4.9 | 0 |
| Abt Associates | 2016-10-19 | 839 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Clout Research | 2016-10-17 | 627 | R+2.7 | 2 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-17 | 807 | D+4.0 | 9 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 886 | D+4.0 | 9 |
| Landmark Communications | 2016-10-11 | 1400 | R+5.5 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-06 | 645 | R+8.5 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-26 | 317 | R+12.9 | 8 |
| JMC Analytics | 2016-09-21 | 600 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| Landmark Communications/Rosetta Stone Communications | 2016-09-21 | 600 | R+3.6 | 2 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-09-17 | 401 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-09-17 | 638 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-15 | 613 | R+3.3 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2016-09-14 | 568 | R+4.3 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2016-09-11 | 600 | R+6.0 | 1 |