Toss-up · 2016 President

Iowa President

In the 2016 Iowa President race, Ted Cruz (R) won by about 9 points.

Actual result

R+9.4

Final polls said

R+2.5

9 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	SurveyMonkey	R+9.0	0.4	✓
2	Monmouth University Polling Institute	R+8.0	1.4	✓
3	Selzer & Co.	R+7.0	2.4	✓
4	RABA Research	R+3.0	6.4	✓
5	Emerson College	R+2.7	6.7	✓
6	Quinnipiac University	EVEN	9.4	✗
7	Ipsos	D+0.2	9.6	✗
8	Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center	D+0.8	10.2	✗
9	YouGov	D+3.1	12.5	✗
10	Lucid	D+4.0	13.4	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 93%	0.005	✓
2	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
3	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
4	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 74%	0.068	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 69%	0.096	✓
6	New York Times	Rep 62%	0.144	✓
7	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—