Actual result
R+9.4
Final polls said
R+2.5
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | R+9.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+8.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Selzer & Co. | R+7.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+6.4 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | RABA Research | R+3.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Emerson College | R+2.7 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | Quinnipiac University | EVEN | 9.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | Ipsos | D+0.2 | 9.6 | ✗ |
| 9 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | D+0.8 | 10.2 | ✗ |
| 10 | YouGov | D+3.1 | 12.5 | ✗ |
| 11 | Lucid | D+4.0 | 13.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 74% | 0.068 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 69% | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 6 | New York Times | Rep 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1781 | R+9.0 | 0 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2016-11-03 | 800 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 2016-11-02 | 500 | D+0.8 | 10 |
| Emerson College | 2016-11-02 | 700 | R+2.7 | 7 |
| RABA Research | 2016-11-01 | 1076 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 984 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-27 | 416 | D+0.2 | 10 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-23 | 791 | EVEN | 9 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 972 | D+3.1 | 13 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 1135 | R+5.0 | 4 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-09 | 917 | D+4.0 | 13 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2016-10-05 | 642 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-03 | 382 | D+0.3 | 10 |
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 2016-09-21 | 491 | R+0.6 | 9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-09-17 | 612 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-09-13 | 404 | R+8.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-12 | 344 | R+10.2 | 1 |