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Toss-up · 2016 President
Iowa President
In the 2016 Iowa President race, Ted Cruz (R) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
R+9.4
Final polls said
R+2.5
9 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | R+9.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+8.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Selzer & Co. | R+7.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | RABA Research | R+3.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | R+2.7 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Quinnipiac University | EVEN | 9.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | Ipsos | D+0.2 | 9.6 | ✗ |
| 8 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | D+0.8 | 10.2 | ✗ |
| 9 | YouGov | D+3.1 | 12.5 | ✗ |
| 10 | Lucid | D+4.0 | 13.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 74% | 0.068 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 69% | 0.096 | ✓ |
| 6 | New York Times | Rep 62% | 0.144 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
The polls behind it
17 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-040
Selzer & Co.2016-11-032
Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center2016-11-0210
Emerson College2016-11-027
RABA Research2016-11-016
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Iowa President race?
Ted Cruz (R) won, by about 9.4 points (R+9.4).
When was the 2016 Iowa President election held?
It was held in November 2016.