Actual result
R+31.8
Final polls said
R+21.1
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+24.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+29.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+24.3 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | R+23.2 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+19.5 | 12.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Rasmussen Reports | R+19.0 | 12.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyMonkey | R+18.0 | 13.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Dan Jones & Associates | R+10.0 | 21.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 612 | R+18.0 | 14 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 205 | R+23.2 | 9 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 447 | R+18.0 | 14 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-23 | 750 | R+19.0 | 13 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-22 | 1023 | R+29.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 416 | R+19.5 | 12 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 171 | R+15.6 | 16 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2016-10-04 | 608 | R+10.0 | 22 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-19 | 175 | R+32.2 | 0 |