← all past elections
Toss-up · 2016 President
Illinois President
In the 2016 Illinois President race, Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won by about 17 points.
Actual result
D+17.1
Final polls said
D+16.7
9 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | D+17.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | GS Strategy Group | D+17.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+17.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Illinois Public Opinion | D+18.5 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | We Ask America | D+18.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+15.2 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Victory Research | D+15.1 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | Ipsos | D+12.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Emerson College | D+12.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | D+11.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | D+24.8 | 7.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
22 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-040
Ipsos2016-11-035
Emerson College2016-10-295
SurveyMonkey2016-10-280
Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center2016-10-266
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Illinois President race?
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won, by about 17.1 points (D+17.1).
When was the 2016 Illinois President election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.