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Toss-up · 2016 President
Illinois President
In the 2016 Illinois President race, Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won by about 17 points.
Actual result
D+17.1
Final polls said
D+16.7
9 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | D+17.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | GS Strategy Group | D+17.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+17.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Illinois Public Opinion | D+18.5 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | We Ask America | D+18.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+15.2 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Victory Research | D+15.1 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | Ipsos | D+12.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Emerson College | D+12.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | D+11.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | D+24.8 | 7.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
22 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-040
Ipsos2016-11-035
Emerson College2016-10-295
SurveyMonkey2016-10-280
Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center2016-10-266
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Illinois President race?
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won, by about 17.1 points (D+17.1).
When was the 2016 Illinois President election held?
It was held in November 2016.