Actual result
D+17.1
Final polls said
D+16.7
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+20.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | D+17.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | GS Strategy Group | D+17.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+17.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Illinois Public Opinion | D+18.5 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | We Ask America | D+18.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+15.2 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Victory Research | D+15.1 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | D+20.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Ipsos | D+12.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | Emerson College | D+12.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | D+11.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 12 | Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | D+24.8 | 7.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (22)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1700 | D+17.0 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2016-11-03 | 482 | D+12.2 | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-29 | 500 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1003 | D+17.0 | 0 |
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 2016-10-26 | 600 | D+11.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-24 | 475 | D+21.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 3448 | D+15.2 | 2 |
| Victory Research | 2016-10-17 | 1200 | D+15.1 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-17 | 371 | D+29.7 | 13 |
| Illinois Public Opinion | 2016-10-13 | 644 | D+18.5 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 409 | D+32.9 | 16 |
| GS Strategy Group | 2016-10-04 | 600 | D+17.0 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-03 | 601 | D+26.2 | 9 |
| Southern Illinois University Paul Simon Public Policy Institute | 2016-09-29 | 865 | D+24.8 | 8 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2016-09-28 | 600 | D+17.0 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-26 | 422 | D+19.3 | 2 |
| Victory Research | 2016-09-23 | 1200 | D+13.5 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2016-09-20 | 700 | D+5.8 | 11 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-19 | 426 | D+22.6 | 6 |
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 2016-09-15 | 600 | D+13.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-12 | 432 | D+15.3 | 2 |
| We Ask America | 2016-09-12 | 955 | D+18.5 | 1 |