Toss-up · 2016 President

Indiana President

In the 2016 Indiana President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 19 points.

Actual result

R+19.2

Final polls said

R+12.4

9 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	SurveyMonkey	R+17.0	2.2	✓
2	Ipsos	R+15.9	3.3	✓
3	Public Opinion Strategies	R+11.0	8.2	✓
4	Monmouth University Polling Institute	R+11.0	8.2	✓
5	Gravis Marketing	R+10.0	9.2	✓
6	YouGov	R+7.2	12.0	✓
7	Ball State University Bowen Center for Public Affairs	R+6.0	13.2	✓
8	Lucid	R+6.0	13.2	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 98%	0.000	✓
2	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
4	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
5	New York Times	Rep 97%	0.001	✓
6	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
7	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓