Actual result
R+19.2
Final polls said
R+12.4
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | R+17.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+16.4 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | R+15.9 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+11.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+11.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | Gravis Marketing | R+10.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | R+7.2 | 12.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | Ball State University Bowen Center for Public Affairs | R+6.0 | 13.2 | ✓ |
| 9 | Lucid | R+6.0 | 13.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | New York Times | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (16)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1823 | R+17.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2016-11-03 | 303 | R+15.9 | 3 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2016-11-02 | 600 | R+11.0 | 8 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-31 | 399 | R+10.0 | 9 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-29 | 402 | R+11.0 | 8 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 674 | R+14.0 | 5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-23 | 596 | R+11.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 1742 | R+7.2 | 12 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-20 | 368 | R+14.6 | 5 |
| Ball State University Bowen Center for Public Affairs | 2016-10-13 | 544 | R+6.0 | 13 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-12 | 402 | R+4.0 | 15 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-09 | 1123 | R+6.0 | 13 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-06 | 434 | R+8.9 | 10 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2016-10-04 | 600 | R+5.0 | 14 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-22 | 340 | R+17.3 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-08 | 372 | R+19.8 | 1 |