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Toss-up · 2016 President
Indiana President
In the 2016 Indiana President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 19 points.
Actual result
R+19.2
Final polls said
R+12.4
9 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | R+17.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ipsos | R+15.9 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+11.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+11.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Gravis Marketing | R+10.0 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | R+7.2 | 12.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Ball State University Bowen Center for Public Affairs | R+6.0 | 13.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | Lucid | R+6.0 | 13.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | New York Times | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
16 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-042
Ipsos2016-11-033
Public Opinion Strategies2016-11-028
Gravis Marketing2016-10-319
Monmouth University Polling Institute2016-10-298
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Indiana President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 19.2 points (R+19.2).
When was the 2016 Indiana President election held?
It was held in November 2016.