Actual result
R+20.6
Final polls said
R+15.2
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+18.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+18.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fort Hays State University Docking Institute of Public Affairs | R+24.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | R+16.2 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+15.9 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyMonkey | R+13.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | R+11.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1311 | R+13.0 | 8 |
| Fort Hays State University Docking Institute of Public Affairs | 2016-11-02 | 313 | R+24.0 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1273 | R+11.0 | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-28 | 624 | R+11.0 | 10 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-27 | 361 | R+16.2 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 776 | R+15.9 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-13 | 581 | R+11.0 | 10 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-03 | 382 | R+12.4 | 8 |
| Fort Hays State University Docking Institute of Public Affairs | 2016-09-22 | 829 | R+8.0 | 13 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-12 | 314 | R+14.9 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-09-08 | 595 | R+12.0 | 9 |