Actual result
R+29.8
Final polls said
R+21.3
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+24.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cygnal | R+24.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+24.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | R+20.6 | 9.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+20.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyMonkey | R+19.0 | 10.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Western Kentucky University Social Science Research Center | R+17.0 | 12.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1315 | R+19.0 | 11 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 391 | R+20.6 | 9 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 424 | R+27.0 | 3 |
| Western Kentucky University Social Science Research Center | 2016-10-27 | 602 | R+17.0 | 13 |
| Cygnal | 2016-10-27 | 811 | R+24.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 1229 | R+20.0 | 10 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 458 | R+10.6 | 19 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-22 | 361 | R+18.6 | 11 |