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Toss-up · 2016 President
Louisiana President
In the 2016 Louisiana President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 20 points.
Actual result
R+19.6
Final polls said
R+12.5
9 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+20.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ipsos | R+15.4 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Southern Media & Opinion Research | R+15.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | R+14.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | University of New Orleans Survey Research Center | R+14.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | R+11.4 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Market Research Insight | R+7.0 | 12.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | JMC Analytics | R+7.0 | 12.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Lucid | R+3.0 | 16.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
15 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-046
SurveyMonkey2016-10-287
Ipsos2016-10-274
Southern Media & Opinion Research2016-10-205
YouGov2016-10-208
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Louisiana President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 19.6 points (R+19.6).
When was the 2016 Louisiana President election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.