Actual result
R+19.6
Final polls said
R+12.5
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+20.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+16.8 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | R+15.4 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Southern Media & Opinion Research | R+15.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyMonkey | R+14.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | University of New Orleans Survey Research Center | R+14.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | R+11.4 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | Market Research Insight | R+7.0 | 12.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | JMC Analytics | R+7.0 | 12.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | Lucid | R+3.0 | 16.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 982 | R+14.0 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 423 | R+13.0 | 7 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-27 | 461 | R+15.4 | 4 |
| Southern Media & Opinion Research | 2016-10-20 | 500 | R+15.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 1355 | R+11.4 | 8 |
| Market Research Insight | 2016-10-18 | 600 | R+7.0 | 13 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2016-10-18 | 625 | R+20.0 | 0 |
| University of New Orleans Survey Research Center | 2016-10-18 | 603 | R+14.0 | 6 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-18 | 614 | R+3.0 | 17 |
| JMC Analytics | 2016-10-13 | 800 | R+7.0 | 13 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-03 | 473 | R+13.2 | 6 |
| Market Research Insight | 2016-09-29 | 600 | R+17.0 | 3 |
| JMC Analytics | 2016-09-23 | 905 | R+10.0 | 10 |
| Southern Media & Opinion Research | 2016-09-16 | 500 | R+16.3 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-12 | 369 | R+16.1 | 4 |