Actual result
D+27.2
Final polls said
D+26.5
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+28.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+28.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | D+26.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | MassINC Polling Group | D+26.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Western New England University Polling Institute | D+30.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+22.7 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Suffolk University | D+32.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Ipsos | D+17.4 | 9.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1378 | D+26.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2016-11-03 | 365 | D+17.4 | 10 |
| Western New England University Polling Institute | 2016-10-28 | 417 | D+30.0 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 796 | D+29.0 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2016-10-25 | 500 | D+32.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-20 | 494 | D+29.3 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 1963 | D+22.7 | 5 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2016-10-15 | 502 | D+26.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-06 | 598 | D+25.5 | 2 |
| Western New England University Polling Institute | 2016-09-28 | 403 | D+32.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-22 | 588 | D+21.7 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2016-09-17 | 700 | D+13.0 | 14 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2016-09-09 | 506 | D+26.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-08 | 488 | D+22.0 | 5 |