Actual result
D+26.4
Final polls said
D+28.7
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+29.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+25.8 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+29.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | D+22.1 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | D+31.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics | D+33.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement | D+36.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1216 | D+31.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 472 | D+22.1 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 740 | D+36.0 | 10 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 1652 | D+25.8 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-13 | 369 | D+24.4 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-29 | 508 | D+21.3 | 5 |
| The Washington Post/University of Maryland Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement | 2016-09-29 | 706 | D+36.0 | 10 |
| Goucher College Sarah T. Hughes Center for Politics | 2016-09-19 | 514 | D+33.0 | 7 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-15 | 435 | D+16.4 | 10 |