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Toss-up · 2016 President
Michigan President
In the 2016 Michigan President race, Donald Trump (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.2
Final polls said
D+4.5
24 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strategic National | EVEN | 0.2 | ✗ |
| 2 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.7 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | D+1.4 | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | D+2.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 5 | EPIC-MRA | D+4.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 6 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 7 | Gravis Marketing | D+5.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 8 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | D+5.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 9 | Target Insyght | D+5.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 10 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+6.0 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 11 | YouGov | D+6.0 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 12 | Emerson College | D+7.0 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 13 | Glengariff Group | D+11.6 | 11.8 | ✗ |
| 14 | Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research | D+19.0 | 19.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 3 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 79% | 0.624 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 80% | 0.632 | ✗ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 80% | 0.640 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 7 | New York Times | Dem 94% | 0.884 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
37 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Trafalgar Group2016-11-061
Mitchell Research & Communications2016-11-066
SurveyMonkey2016-11-042
Public Policy Polling2016-11-035
Strategic National2016-11-030
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Michigan President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 0.2 points (R+0.2).
When was the 2016 Michigan President election held?
It was held in November 2016.