Actual result
R+0.2
Final polls said
D+4.5
24 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+4.2
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strategic National | EVEN | 0.2 | ✗ |
| 2 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.7 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | D+1.4 | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | D+2.0 | 2.2 | ✗ |
| 5 | EPIC-MRA | D+4.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+4.2 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 8 | Gravis Marketing | D+5.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 9 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | D+5.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 10 | Target Insyght | D+5.0 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 11 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+6.0 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 12 | YouGov | D+6.0 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 13 | Emerson College | D+7.0 | 7.2 | ✗ |
| 14 | Glengariff Group | D+11.6 | 11.8 | ✗ |
| 15 | Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research | D+19.0 | 19.2 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 3 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 79% | 0.624 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 80% | 0.640 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Dem 82% | 0.669 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 7 | New York Times | Dem 94% | 0.884 | ✗ |
Polls (37)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | 2016-11-06 | 1200 | R+1.7 | 1 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2016-11-06 | 1011 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 3145 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-11-03 | 957 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Strategic National | 2016-11-03 | 573 | EVEN | 0 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2016-11-03 | 1007 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-11-03 | 342 | D+1.4 | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-03 | 1079 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2016-11-02 | 600 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2016-11-02 | 1150 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2016-11-01 | 887 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2016-10-31 | 737 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2016-10-30 | 953 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Strategic National | 2016-10-29 | 500 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1649 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2016-10-25 | 1030 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-25 | 500 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-24 | 335 | D+4.2 | 4 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2016-10-23 | 600 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2016-10-23 | 1241 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 3014 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | 2016-10-18 | 600 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2016-10-18 | 1102 | D+13.0 | 13 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-17 | 441 | D+4.4 | 5 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 1331 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2016-10-11 | 1429 | D+10.0 | 10 |
| Glengariff Group | 2016-10-10 | 600 | D+11.6 | 12 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 1168 | D+6.5 | 7 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-03 | 418 | D+6.6 | 7 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2016-10-02 | 600 | D+11.0 | 11 |
| Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research | 2016-10-01 | 746 | D+19.0 | 19 |
| Glengariff Group | 2016-09-27 | 600 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2016-09-27 | 1956 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-26 | 375 | D+0.3 | 1 |
| Target Insyght | 2016-09-21 | 600 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-15 | 632 | D+1.3 | 2 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2016-09-12 | 600 | D+3.0 | 3 |