Toss-up · 2016 President

Michigan President

In the 2016 Michigan President race, Donald Trump (R) won by less than a point.

Actual result

R+0.2

Final polls said

D+4.5

24 late polls · ✗

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Strategic National	EVEN	0.2	✗
2	Trafalgar Group	R+1.7	1.5	✓
3	Ipsos	D+1.4	1.6	✗
4	SurveyMonkey	D+2.0	2.2	✗
5	EPIC-MRA	D+4.0	4.2	✗
6	Public Policy Polling	D+5.0	5.2	✗
7	Gravis Marketing	D+5.0	5.2	✗
8	Marketing Resource Group (MRG)	D+5.0	5.2	✗
9	Target Insyght	D+5.0	5.2	✗
10	Mitchell Research & Communications	D+6.0	6.2	✗
11	YouGov	D+6.0	6.2	✗
12	Emerson College	D+7.0	7.2	✗
13	Glengariff Group	D+11.6	11.8	✗
14	Michigan State University Institute for Public Policy and Social Research	D+19.0	19.2	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.562	✗
2	Inside Elections	Dem 75%	0.562	✗
3	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 79%	0.624	✗
4	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 80%	0.633	✗
5	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 80%	0.640	✗
6	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.810	✗
7	New York Times	Dem 94%	0.884	✗