Actual result
D+1.5
Final polls said
D+8.5
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+7.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gravis Marketing | EVEN | 1.5 | ✗ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+6.4 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | D+7.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+7.8 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Ipsos | D+7.9 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+8.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | D+10.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | St. Cloud State University | D+11.0 | 9.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 3 | New York Times | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1292 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 647 | D+7.9 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 773 | D+9.0 | 7 |
| St. Cloud State University | 2016-10-25 | 709 | D+11.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-24 | 656 | D+10.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2016-10-21 | 625 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 1736 | D+6.4 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-13 | 499 | D+11.8 | 10 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-29 | 645 | D+4.5 | 3 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-09-23 | 906 | EVEN | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-09-18 | 625 | D+7.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-15 | 510 | D+6.9 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2016-09-13 | 625 | D+6.0 | 4 |