Toss-up · 2016 President

Minnesota President

In the 2016 Minnesota President race, Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won by about 2 points.

Actual result

D+1.5

Final polls said

D+8.5

7 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Gravis Marketing	EVEN	1.5	✗
2	YouGov	D+6.4	4.9	✓
3	SurveyMonkey	D+7.0	5.5	✓
4	Ipsos	D+7.9	6.4	✓
5	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	D+8.0	6.5	✓
6	SurveyUSA	D+10.0	8.5	✓
7	St. Cloud State University	D+11.0	9.5	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
2	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 95%	0.003	✓
3	New York Times	Dem 94%	0.004	✓
4	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
5	Inside Elections	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
6	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
7	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 85%	0.023	✓