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Toss-up · 2016 President
Minnesota President
In the 2016 Minnesota President race, Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
D+1.5
Final polls said
D+8.5
7 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gravis Marketing | EVEN | 1.5 | ✗ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+6.4 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | D+7.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Ipsos | D+7.9 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+8.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+10.0 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | St. Cloud State University | D+11.0 | 9.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 3 | New York Times | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
13 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-045
Ipsos2016-10-306
SurveyMonkey2016-10-287
St. Cloud State University2016-10-259
SurveyUSA2016-10-248
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Minnesota President race?
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won, by about 1.5 points (D+1.5).
When was the 2016 Minnesota President election held?
It was held in November 2016.