Actual result
R+18.6
Final polls said
R+10.5
16 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clarity Campaign Labs | R+16.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+14.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | BK Strategies | R+14.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | R+13.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Remington Research Group | R+13.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | R+12.7 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | DFM Research | R+9.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Ipsos | R+8.3 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | SurveyMonkey | R+8.0 | 10.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | YouGov | R+7.5 | 11.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | Emerson College | R+6.0 | 12.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+5.0 | 13.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Times | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (24)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1368 | R+8.0 | 11 |
| Emerson College | 2016-11-04 | 750 | R+6.0 | 13 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-11-01 | 871 | R+13.0 | 6 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2016-11-01 | 1036 | R+16.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-31 | 1083 | R+13.0 | 6 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-31 | 1722 | R+13.0 | 6 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-30 | 650 | R+15.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 401 | R+8.3 | 10 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-30 | 405 | R+14.0 | 5 |
| DFM Research | 2016-10-29 | 508 | R+9.0 | 10 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 671 | R+7.0 | 12 |
| BK Strategies | 2016-10-27 | 1698 | R+14.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2016-10-25 | 625 | R+5.0 | 14 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-24 | 2559 | R+11.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 1814 | R+7.5 | 11 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-18 | 600 | R+8.0 | 11 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-13 | 321 | R+11.1 | 8 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-10 | 406 | R+5.0 | 14 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-10 | 2171 | R+5.0 | 14 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-29 | 478 | R+11.7 | 7 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-09-26 | 1279 | R+10.0 | 9 |
| YouGov | 2016-09-22 | 1087 | R+9.0 | 10 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-15 | 356 | R+15.6 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2016-09-11 | 600 | R+13.0 | 6 |