Toss-up · 2016 President

Missouri President

In the 2016 Missouri President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 19 points.

Actual result

R+18.6

Final polls said

R+10.5

16 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Clarity Campaign Labs	R+16.0	2.6	✓
2	Monmouth University Polling Institute	R+14.0	4.6	✓
3	BK Strategies	R+14.0	4.6	✓
4	Public Policy Polling	R+13.0	5.6	✓
5	Remington Research Group	R+13.0	5.6	✓
6	DFM Research	R+9.0	9.6	✓
7	Ipsos	R+8.3	10.4	✓
8	SurveyMonkey	R+8.0	10.6	✓
9	YouGov	R+7.5	11.1	✓
10	Emerson College	R+6.0	12.6	✓
11	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	R+5.0	13.6	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	New York Times	Rep 98%	0.000	✓
2	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
4	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 97%	0.001	✓
6	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
7	Inside Elections	Rep 90%	0.010	✓