Actual result
R+17.8
Final polls said
R+9.5
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+15.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ipsos | R+17.2 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+15.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | R+8.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+6.0 | 11.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | New York Times | Rep 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 719 | R+8.0 | 10 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 184 | R+17.2 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 648 | R+7.0 | 11 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 861 | R+6.0 | 12 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 171 | R+14.8 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-19 | 202 | R+11.0 | 7 |