Actual result
R+20.4
Final polls said
R+16.6
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+21.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+21.5 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ipsos | R+18.9 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | R+22.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Montana State University Billings | R+16.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | R+12.4 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+10.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | New York Times | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 449 | R+22.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 115 | R+18.9 | 2 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 405 | R+13.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 307 | R+12.4 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2016-10-11 | 1003 | R+10.0 | 10 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 109 | R+19.1 | 1 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2016-10-07 | 590 | R+16.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-19 | 144 | R+13.7 | 7 |