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Toss-up · 2016 President
Montana President
In the 2016 Montana President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 20 points.
Actual result
R+20.4
Final polls said
R+16.6
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ipsos | R+18.9 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | R+22.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Montana State University Billings | R+16.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+12.4 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+10.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | New York Times | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-042
Ipsos2016-10-302
SurveyMonkey2016-10-287
YouGov2016-10-208
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2016-10-1110
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Montana President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 20.4 points (R+20.4).
When was the 2016 Montana President election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.