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Toss-up · 2016 President
Montana President
In the 2016 Montana President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 20 points.
Actual result
R+20.4
Final polls said
R+16.6
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ipsos | R+18.9 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | R+22.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Montana State University Billings | R+16.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+12.4 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+10.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | New York Times | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-042
Ipsos2016-10-302
SurveyMonkey2016-10-287
YouGov2016-10-208
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2016-10-1110
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Montana President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 20.4 points (R+20.4).
When was the 2016 Montana President election held?
It was held in November 2016.