Actual result
R+3.7
Final polls said
D+1.7
31 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+0.9
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Remington Research Group | R+3.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Trafalgar Group | R+5.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+5.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Ipsos | R+0.9 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | R+7.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | The New York Times/Siena College | EVEN | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 7 | Elon University | D+0.8 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | D+0.9 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 9 | Gravis Marketing | D+1.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 10 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+1.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 11 | Lucid | D+1.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 12 | Big Village | D+1.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 13 | High Point University Survey Research Center | D+1.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 14 | Selzer & Co. | D+1.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 15 | Suffolk University | D+1.4 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 16 | Quinnipiac University | D+2.0 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 17 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 18 | National Research | D+2.0 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 19 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 20 | Emerson College | D+3.0 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 21 | Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | D+3.0 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 22 | GQR | D+4.0 | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 23 | Rasmussen Reports | D+6.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 24 | Marist College | D+6.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 25 | SurveyMonkey | D+7.0 | 10.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 59% | 0.345 | ✗ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 5 | New York Times | Dem 64% | 0.410 | ✗ |
| 6 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 67% | 0.449 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
Polls (55)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2016-11-05 | 800 | EVEN | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-11-05 | 870 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 3126 | D+7.0 | 11 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-11-04 | 525 | D+6.0 | 10 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-03 | 1250 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-11-03 | 371 | R+0.9 | 3 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-11-01 | 2596 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-31 | 1169 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-31 | 525 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-30 | 659 | R+7.0 | 3 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-30 | 1176 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2016-10-29 | 1150 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-29 | 602 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1574 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-27 | 992 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-26 | 650 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-26 | 525 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-25 | 1273 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Elon University | 2016-10-25 | 710 | D+0.8 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-25 | 780 | D+6.0 | 10 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-23 | 702 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2016-10-22 | 792 | D+7.0 | 11 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-22 | 402 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-21 | 1764 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-21 | 875 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-21 | 875 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-20 | 644 | D+4.2 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 2916 | D+2.2 | 6 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-17 | 924 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| National Research | 2016-10-16 | 600 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-16 | 651 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Big Village | 2016-10-12 | 788 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 1191 | D+6.0 | 10 |
| Suffolk University | 2016-10-11 | 500 | D+1.4 | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-11 | 600 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-11 | 743 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 1056 | D+3.9 | 8 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2016-10-03 | 479 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-03 | 326 | D+1.1 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-01 | 656 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2016-10-01 | 805 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-09-29 | 507 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| Elon University | 2016-09-29 | 660 | D+5.5 | 9 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-09-27 | 861 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-09-23 | 694 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-22 | 520 | D+4.5 | 8 |
| Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | 2016-09-20 | 487 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-09-19 | 1024 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2016-09-19 | 404 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2016-09-19 | 734 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2016-09-18 | 782 | EVEN | 4 |
| GQR | 2016-09-14 | 400 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| Elon University | 2016-09-14 | 644 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| National Research | 2016-09-11 | 600 | EVEN | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-08 | 502 | D+2.6 | 6 |