Toss-up · 2016 President

North Carolina President

In the 2016 North Carolina President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 4 points.

Actual result

R+3.7

Final polls said

D+1.7

31 late polls · ✗

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Remington Research Group	R+3.0	0.7	✓
2	Trafalgar Group	R+5.0	1.3	✓
3	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	R+5.0	1.3	✓
4	Ipsos	R+0.9	2.8	✓
5	SurveyUSA	R+7.0	3.3	✓
6	The New York Times/Siena College	EVEN	3.7	✗
7	Elon University	D+0.8	4.5	✗
8	Gravis Marketing	D+1.0	4.7	✗
9	Monmouth University Polling Institute	D+1.0	4.7	✗
10	Lucid	D+1.0	4.7	✗
11	Big Village	D+1.0	4.7	✗
12	High Point University Survey Research Center	D+1.0	4.7	✗
13	Selzer & Co.	D+1.0	4.7	✗
14	Suffolk University	D+1.4	5.1	✗
15	Quinnipiac University	D+2.0	5.7	✗
16	Public Policy Polling	D+2.0	5.7	✗
17	National Research	D+2.0	5.7	✗
18	YouGov	D+3.0	6.7	✗
19	Emerson College	D+3.0	6.7	✗
20	Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies	D+3.0	6.7	✗
21	GQR	D+4.0	7.7	✗
22	Rasmussen Reports	D+6.0	9.7	✗
23	Marist College	D+6.0	9.7	✗
24	SurveyMonkey	D+7.0	10.7	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—
2	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 55%	0.303	✗
3	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 56%	0.312	✗
4	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.360	✗
5	New York Times	Dem 64%	0.410	✗
6	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 67%	0.449	✗
7	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.562	✗