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Toss-up · 2016 President
North Carolina President
In the 2016 North Carolina President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
R+3.7
Final polls said
D+1.7
31 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Remington Research Group | R+3.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Trafalgar Group | R+5.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+5.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Ipsos | R+0.9 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | R+7.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | The New York Times/Siena College | EVEN | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 7 | Elon University | D+0.8 | 4.5 | ✗ |
| 8 | Gravis Marketing | D+1.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 9 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+1.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 10 | Lucid | D+1.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 11 | Big Village | D+1.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 12 | High Point University Survey Research Center | D+1.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 13 | Selzer & Co. | D+1.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 14 | Suffolk University | D+1.4 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 15 | Quinnipiac University | D+2.0 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 16 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 17 | National Research | D+2.0 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 18 | YouGov | D+3.0 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 19 | Emerson College | D+3.0 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 20 | Meredith College Department of History, Political Science, and International Studies | D+3.0 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 21 | GQR | D+4.0 | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 22 | Rasmussen Reports | D+6.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 23 | Marist College | D+6.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 24 | SurveyMonkey | D+7.0 | 10.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 55% | 0.303 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 56% | 0.312 | ✗ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 5 | New York Times | Dem 64% | 0.410 | ✗ |
| 6 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 67% | 0.449 | ✗ |
| 7 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
55 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
The New York Times/Siena College2016-11-054
Quinnipiac University2016-11-056
SurveyMonkey2016-11-0411
Rasmussen Reports2016-11-0410
Gravis Marketing2016-11-035
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 North Carolina President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 3.7 points (R+3.7).
When was the 2016 North Carolina President election held?
It was held in November 2016.