Actual result
R+35.7
Final polls said
R+21.5
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+25.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | R+28.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+25.9 | 9.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | R+23.6 | 12.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+12.5 | 23.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | DFM Research | R+11.0 | 24.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 313 | R+28.0 | 8 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 153 | R+23.6 | 12 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 279 | R+22.0 | 14 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 201 | R+12.5 | 23 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-03 | 105 | R+10.2 | 25 |
| DFM Research | 2016-09-14 | 400 | R+11.0 | 25 |