Actual result
R+25.1
Final polls said
R+17.8
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+21.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+26.4 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+21.7 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | R+21.6 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | R+17.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | R+12.6 | 12.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | New York Times | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 988 | R+17.0 | 8 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 216 | R+21.6 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 412 | R+20.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 506 | R+12.6 | 12 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 207 | R+12.1 | 13 |
| Emerson College | 2016-09-25 | 700 | R+26.4 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-19 | 197 | R+18.5 | 7 |