Actual result
D+0.4
Final polls said
D+4.5
23 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | EVEN | 0.4 | ✗ |
| 2 | Suffolk University | R+0.4 | 0.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | Emerson College | D+1.6 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | MassINC Polling Group | R+1.0 | 1.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | Praecones Analytica | R+1.7 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 6 | Ipsos | D+2.6 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Gravis Marketing | R+2.0 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 8 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+4.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | American Research Group | R+5.0 | 5.4 | ✗ |
| 11 | Rasmussen Reports | D+6.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 12 | GBAO | D+6.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor | D+6.4 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 14 | GQR | D+8.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 15 | YouGov | D+8.6 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 16 | SurveyMonkey | D+9.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 17 | Marist College | D+9.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 18 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+11.0 | 10.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Dem 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2 | New York Times | Dem 79% | 0.044 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 70% | 0.090 | ✓ |
| 7 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 63% | 0.137 | ✓ |
Polls (36)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-11-05 | 692 | D+11.0 | 11 |
| Emerson College | 2016-11-04 | 1000 | D+1.6 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 696 | D+9.0 | 9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-11-04 | 525 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-11-01 | 466 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| Suffolk University | 2016-11-01 | 500 | R+0.4 | 1 |
| American Research Group | 2016-11-01 | 600 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-01 | 1001 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-31 | 525 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2016-10-31 | 500 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-31 | 781 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 196 | D+2.6 | 2 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2016-10-30 | 695 | EVEN | 0 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-10-28 | 516 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 659 | D+13.0 | 13 |
| Praecones Analytica | 2016-10-27 | 408 | R+1.7 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-26 | 525 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-24 | 401 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-24 | 600 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-22 | 768 | D+9.0 | 9 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 430 | D+8.6 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-19 | 772 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-18 | 900 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2016-10-14 | 755 | D+15.0 | 15 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 569 | D+11.0 | 11 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2016-10-11 | 501 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 179 | D+5.9 | 6 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2016-10-09 | 517 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-08 | 600 | D+11.0 | 11 |
| Suffolk University | 2016-10-04 | 500 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| GQR | 2016-10-01 | 500 | D+8.0 | 8 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2016-09-28 | 502 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| GBAO | 2016-09-26 | 600 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2016-09-22 | 522 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-19 | 170 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-09-19 | 400 | D+9.0 | 9 |