Toss-up · 2016 President

New Hampshire President

In the 2016 New Hampshire President race, Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won by less than a point.

Actual result

D+0.4

Final polls said

D+4.5

23 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion	EVEN	0.4	✗
2	Suffolk University	R+0.4	0.8	✗
3	Emerson College	D+1.6	1.2	✓
4	MassINC Polling Group	R+1.0	1.4	✗
5	Praecones Analytica	R+1.7	2.1	✗
6	Ipsos	D+2.6	2.2	✓
7	Gravis Marketing	R+2.0	2.4	✗
8	Monmouth University Polling Institute	D+4.0	3.6	✓
9	Public Policy Polling	D+5.0	4.6	✓
10	American Research Group	R+5.0	5.4	✗
11	Rasmussen Reports	D+6.0	5.6	✓
12	GBAO	D+6.0	5.6	✓
13	GQR	D+8.0	7.6	✓
14	YouGov	D+8.6	8.2	✓
15	SurveyMonkey	D+9.0	8.6	✓
16	Marist College	D+9.0	8.6	✓
17	University of New Hampshire Survey Center	D+11.0	10.6	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 91%	0.008	✓
2	New York Times	Dem 79%	0.044	✓
3	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
4	Inside Elections	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
5	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
6	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 70%	0.090	✓
7	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 63%	0.137	✓