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Toss-up · 2016 President
New Jersey President
In the 2016 New Jersey President race, Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won by about 14 points.
Actual result
D+14.1
Final polls said
D+14.1
6 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+14.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | D+15.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+12.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | D+11.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Ipsos | D+9.9 | 4.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | New York Times | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
11 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-041
Ipsos2016-11-034
Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy2016-10-303
SurveyMonkey2016-10-286
Ipsos2016-10-203
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 New Jersey President race?
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won, by about 14.1 points (D+14.1).
When was the 2016 New Jersey President election held?
It was held in November 2016.