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Toss-up · 2016 President
New Jersey President
In the 2016 New Jersey President race, Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won by about 14 points.
Actual result
D+14.1
Final polls said
D+14.1
6 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+14.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | D+15.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+12.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | D+11.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Ipsos | D+9.9 | 4.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | New York Times | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
11 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-041
Ipsos2016-11-034
Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy2016-10-303
SurveyMonkey2016-10-286
Ipsos2016-10-203
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 New Jersey President race?
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won, by about 14.1 points (D+14.1).
When was the 2016 New Jersey President election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.