Actual result
D+14.1
Final polls said
D+14.1
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+15.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+14.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | D+15.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+15.2 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+12.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | D+11.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Ipsos | D+9.9 | 4.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | New York Times | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1377 | D+15.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2016-11-03 | 551 | D+9.9 | 4 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2016-10-30 | 678 | D+11.0 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 724 | D+20.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-20 | 800 | D+16.7 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 2377 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2016-10-14 | 293 | D+14.0 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-06 | 953 | D+17.7 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-26 | 545 | D+12.5 | 2 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2016-09-26 | 638 | D+6.4 | 8 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-15 | 853 | D+18.3 | 4 |