Toss-up · 2016 President

New Mexico President

In the 2016 New Mexico President race, Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won by about 8 points.

Actual result

D+8.2

Final polls said

D+5.3

10 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Gravis Marketing	D+8.0	0.2	✓
2	Lucid	D+8.0	0.2	✓
3	YouGov	D+7.1	1.1	✓
4	Research & Polling Inc.	D+5.0	3.2	✓
5	SurveyUSA	D+13.0	4.8	✓
6	Ipsos	D+2.6	5.6	✓
7	Zia Poll	D+2.0	6.2	✓
8	SurveyMonkey	D+2.0	6.2	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	New York Times	Dem 95%	0.003	✓
3	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 91%	0.008	✓
4	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
5	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
6	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 87%	0.018	✓
7	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 84%	0.026	✓