Actual result
D+8.2
Final polls said
D+5.3
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gravis Marketing | D+8.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Lucid | D+8.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+7.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+5.4 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+5.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+13.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Ipsos | D+2.6 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Zia Poll | D+2.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 9 | SurveyMonkey | D+2.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | New York Times | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 3 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zia Poll | 2016-11-06 | 8439 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 749 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2016-11-02 | 504 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Zia Poll | 2016-11-01 | 1102 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-01 | 1327 | D+8.0 | 0 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-30 | 567 | D+8.0 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 158 | D+2.6 | 6 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 987 | D+10.0 | 2 |
| Zia Poll | 2016-10-24 | 1899 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 508 | D+7.1 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 889 | D+8.0 | 0 |
| Zia Poll | 2016-10-11 | 1536 | D+10.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 150 | D+16.2 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-09-30 | 594 | D+13.0 | 5 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2016-09-28 | 501 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Zia Poll | 2016-09-24 | 1415 | D+5.2 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-19 | 145 | D+9.3 | 1 |