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Toss-up · 2016 President
New Mexico President
In the 2016 New Mexico President race, Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won by about 8 points.
Actual result
D+8.2
Final polls said
D+5.3
10 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gravis Marketing | D+8.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Lucid | D+8.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+7.1 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+5.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | D+13.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Ipsos | D+2.6 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Zia Poll | D+2.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | SurveyMonkey | D+2.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | New York Times | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 3 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 87% | 0.018 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
17 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Zia Poll2016-11-066
SurveyMonkey2016-11-046
Research & Polling Inc.2016-11-023
Zia Poll2016-11-015
Gravis Marketing2016-11-010
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 New Mexico President race?
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won, by about 8.2 points (D+8.2).
When was the 2016 New Mexico President election held?
It was held in November 2016.