Actual result
D+24.0
Final polls said
D+20.4
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+22.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | D+25.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+22.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+21.3 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Marist College | D+21.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Gravis Marketing | D+19.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Ipsos | D+18.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Siena College | D+17.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+11.0 | 13.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-05 | 1681 | D+19.0 | 5 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 2208 | D+25.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2016-11-03 | 552 | D+18.5 | 6 |
| Siena College | 2016-11-03 | 617 | D+17.0 | 7 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2016-10-28 | 600 | D+11.0 | 13 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1734 | D+23.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-24 | 498 | D+21.7 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 4663 | D+21.3 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-17 | 346 | D+23.6 | 0 |
| Siena College | 2016-10-15 | 611 | D+24.0 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 434 | D+25.9 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-03 | 714 | D+23.7 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-26 | 651 | D+20.3 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2016-09-22 | 676 | D+21.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-19 | 535 | D+18.8 | 5 |
| Siena College | 2016-09-13 | 600 | D+21.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-12 | 544 | D+23.5 | 1 |