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Toss-up · 2016 President
New York President
In the 2016 New York President race, Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won by about 24 points.
Actual result
D+24.0
Final polls said
D+20.4
10 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | D+25.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+21.3 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Marist College | D+21.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Gravis Marketing | D+19.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Ipsos | D+18.5 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Siena College | D+17.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+11.0 | 13.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
17 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Gravis Marketing2016-11-055
SurveyMonkey2016-11-041
Ipsos2016-11-036
Siena College2016-11-037
McLaughlin & Associates2016-10-2813
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 New York President race?
Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won, by about 24.0 points (D+24.0).
When was the 2016 New York President election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.