Actual result
R+8.1
Final polls said
R+1.7
21 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+2.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+6.7 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | R+6.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Quinnipiac University | R+5.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+5.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Selzer & Co. | R+5.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Trafalgar Group | R+4.4 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | Big Village | R+4.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | SurveyMonkey | R+3.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | TargetSmart | R+3.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor | R+2.9 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 11 | GQR | R+2.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 12 | YouGov | R+1.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 13 | Remington Research Group | R+1.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 14 | Marist College | R+1.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 15 | Suffolk University | EVEN | 8.1 | ✗ |
| 16 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 17 | Columbus Dispatch | D+1.0 | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 18 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 19 | Ipsos | D+1.0 | 9.2 | ✗ |
| 20 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+2.0 | 10.1 | ✗ |
| 21 | Impact Research | D+2.0 | 10.1 | ✗ |
| 22 | University of Akron Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics | D+3.0 | 11.1 | ✗ |
| 23 | Lucid | D+5.0 | 13.1 | ✗ |
| 24 | Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | D+8.8 | 16.9 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Rep 74% | 0.069 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 64% | 0.130 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 63% | 0.137 | ✓ |
| 6 | New York Times | Rep 54% | 0.212 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (47)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-05 | 1781 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 2860 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-11-04 | 525 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Emerson College | 2016-11-04 | 900 | R+6.7 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2016-11-03 | 1189 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Ipsos | 2016-11-03 | 552 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| TargetSmart | 2016-11-02 | 844 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-11-01 | 2557 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Columbus Dispatch | 2016-10-31 | 1151 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-31 | 525 | D+3.0 | 11 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-30 | 1187 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-29 | 589 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1823 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-26 | 800 | EVEN | 8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-26 | 525 | D+4.0 | 12 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2016-10-25 | 1150 | R+4.4 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-24 | 508 | R+0.3 | 8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-21 | 875 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-21 | 1971 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 3455 | D+1.7 | 10 |
| Suffolk University | 2016-10-18 | 500 | EVEN | 8 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-13 | 624 | EVEN | 8 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-13 | 1839 | D+0.7 | 9 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 1307 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Big Village | 2016-10-12 | 774 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-11 | 724 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-11 | 600 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute | 2016-10-10 | 1152 | D+8.8 | 17 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-09 | 1304 | D+5.0 | 13 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-06 | 997 | D+4.0 | 12 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-05 | 782 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| TargetSmart | 2016-10-05 | 812 | D+2.9 | 11 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-03 | 405 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-03 | 609 | D+3.6 | 12 |
| University of Akron Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics | 2016-10-02 | 1004 | D+3.0 | 11 |
| Impact Research | 2016-09-29 | 800 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-09-29 | 497 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-26 | 557 | D+1.6 | 10 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-09-22 | 850 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2016-09-19 | 737 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| TargetSmart | 2016-09-19 | 652 | D+3.0 | 11 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-19 | 407 | D+3.5 | 12 |
| GQR | 2016-09-14 | 400 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Suffolk University | 2016-09-13 | 500 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-12 | 450 | D+3.7 | 12 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2016-09-11 | 802 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Big Village | 2016-09-09 | 769 | R+5.0 | 3 |