Toss-up · 2016 President

Ohio President

In the 2016 Ohio President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 8 points.

Actual result

R+8.1

Final polls said

R+1.7

21 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	R+6.7	1.4	✓
2	Gravis Marketing	R+6.0	2.1	✓
3	Quinnipiac University	R+5.0	3.1	✓
4	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	R+5.0	3.1	✓
5	Selzer & Co.	R+5.0	3.1	✓
6	Trafalgar Group	R+4.4	3.7	✓
7	Big Village	R+4.0	4.1	✓
8	SurveyMonkey	R+3.0	5.1	✓
9	TargetSmart	R+3.0	5.1	✓
10	GQR	R+2.0	6.1	✓
11	YouGov	R+1.0	7.1	✓
12	Remington Research Group	R+1.0	7.1	✓
13	Marist College	R+1.0	7.1	✓
14	Suffolk University	EVEN	8.1	✗
15	Rasmussen Reports	D+1.0	9.1	✗
16	Columbus Dispatch	D+1.0	9.1	✗
17	Public Policy Polling	D+1.0	9.1	✗
18	Ipsos	D+1.0	9.2	✗
19	Monmouth University Polling Institute	D+2.0	10.1	✗
20	Impact Research	D+2.0	10.1	✗
21	University of Akron Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics	D+3.0	11.1	✗
22	Lucid	D+5.0	13.1	✗
23	Baldwin Wallace University Community Research Institute	D+8.8	16.9	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 75%	0.061	✓
2	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
3	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 64%	0.130	✓
5	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 63%	0.137	✓
6	New York Times	Rep 54%	0.212	✓
7	Inside Elections	Dem 50%	0.250	—