Actual result
R+36.4
Final polls said
R+27.1
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+29.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ipsos | R+30.9 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | SoonerPoll.com | R+30.0 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+29.7 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+26.6 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyMonkey | R+25.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1271 | R+25.0 | 11 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 472 | R+23.0 | 13 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-27 | 432 | R+30.9 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 949 | R+26.6 | 10 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2016-10-19 | 530 | R+30.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-03 | 432 | R+15.3 | 21 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2016-09-14 | 515 | R+15.3 | 21 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-12 | 332 | R+25.4 | 11 |