Toss-up · 2016 President

Oregon President

In the 2016 Oregon President race, Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won by about 11 points.

Actual result

D+11.0

Final polls said

D+9.7

6 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	SurveyUSA	D+10.0	1.0	✓
2	Riley Research Associates	D+10.0	1.0	✓
3	Hoffman Research Group	D+12.0	1.0	✓
4	Ipsos	D+9.7	1.3	✓
5	YouGov	D+7.8	3.2	✓
6	DHM Research	D+7.0	4.0	✓
7	SurveyMonkey	D+15.0	4.0	✓
8	Gravis Marketing	D+4.0	7.0	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Cook Political	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	New York Times	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
4	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
5	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
6	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
7	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 94%	0.004	✓