Actual result
D+11.0
Final polls said
D+9.7
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+10.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Riley Research Associates | D+10.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Hoffman Research Group | D+12.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Ipsos | D+9.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+8.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+7.8 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | DHM Research | D+7.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | SurveyMonkey | D+15.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | Gravis Marketing | D+4.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | New York Times | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-05 | 1963 | D+4.0 | 7 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1595 | D+15.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 465 | D+9.7 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 743 | D+15.0 | 4 |
| DHM Research | 2016-10-27 | 504 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 1112 | D+7.8 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-11 | 654 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 644 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| DHM Research | 2016-10-10 | 600 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| Riley Research Associates | 2016-10-09 | 608 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-04 | 1248 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| Hoffman Research Group | 2016-09-30 | 605 | D+12.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-22 | 436 | D+10.8 | 0 |