Toss-up · 2016 President

Pennsylvania President

In the 2016 Pennsylvania President race, Donald Trump (R) won by less than a point.

Actual result

R+0.7

Final polls said

D+3.8

33 late polls · ✗

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Harper Polling	EVEN	0.7	✗
2	Trafalgar Group	R+1.9	1.2	✓
3	Rasmussen Reports	R+2.0	1.3	✓
4	Remington Research Group	D+1.0	1.7	✗
5	Mercyhurst University Center for Applied Politics	D+1.0	1.7	✗
6	YouGov	D+2.0	2.7	✗
7	Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	D+2.0	2.7	✗
8	SurveyMonkey	D+3.0	3.7	✗
9	Ipsos	D+3.0	3.7	✗
10	Clarity Campaign Labs	D+4.0	4.7	✗
11	Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion	D+4.0	4.7	✗
12	Monmouth University Polling Institute	D+4.0	4.7	✗
13	Public Policy Polling	D+4.0	4.7	✗
14	Big Village	D+4.0	4.7	✗
15	Quinnipiac University	D+5.0	5.7	✗
16	Emerson College	D+5.0	5.7	✗
17	Gravis Marketing	D+6.0	6.7	✗
18	The New York Times/Siena College	D+7.0	7.7	✗
19	GQR	D+8.0	8.7	✗
20	Selzer & Co.	D+9.0	9.7	✗
21	Lucid	D+9.0	9.7	✗
22	Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research	D+11.0	11.7	✗
23	Marist College	D+12.0	12.7	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.562	✗
2	Inside Elections	Dem 75%	0.562	✗
3	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.562	✗
4	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 77%	0.593	✗
5	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 79%	0.624	✗
6	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 84%	0.700	✗
7	New York Times	Dem 89%	0.792	✗