Actual result
R+0.7
Final polls said
D+3.8
33 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+4.8
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harper Polling | EVEN | 0.7 | ✗ |
| 2 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.9 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Rasmussen Reports | R+2.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Remington Research Group | D+1.0 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 5 | Mercyhurst University Center for Applied Politics | D+1.0 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 7 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+2.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 8 | SurveyMonkey | D+3.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 9 | Ipsos | D+3.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 10 | Clarity Campaign Labs | D+4.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 11 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+4.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 12 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+4.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 13 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 14 | Big Village | D+4.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 15 | VotePredictor | D+4.8 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 16 | Quinnipiac University | D+5.0 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 17 | Emerson College | D+5.0 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 18 | Gravis Marketing | D+6.0 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 19 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+7.0 | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 20 | GQR | D+8.0 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 21 | Selzer & Co. | D+9.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 22 | Lucid | D+9.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 23 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+11.0 | 11.7 | ✗ |
| 24 | Marist College | D+12.0 | 12.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 77% | 0.593 | ✗ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 79% | 0.624 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 86% | 0.733 | ✗ |
| 7 | New York Times | Dem 89% | 0.792 | ✗ |
Polls (56)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-05 | 1220 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2016-11-04 | 1300 | R+1.9 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 2845 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-11-04 | 525 | R+2.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2016-11-04 | 931 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2016-11-03 | 1033 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-11-03 | 498 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Harper Polling | 2016-11-02 | 504 | EVEN | 1 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-11-01 | 2683 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2016-11-01 | 405 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-01 | 1016 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-31 | 2606 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-31 | 403 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-31 | 1050 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2016-10-31 | 681 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-31 | 525 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-30 | 1249 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-29 | 612 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| Big Village | 2016-10-29 | 799 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 2255 | D+8.0 | 9 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2016-10-28 | 652 | D+11.0 | 12 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-27 | 3217 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-27 | 1091 | D+8.0 | 9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-26 | 525 | D+7.0 | 8 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-25 | 550 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-24 | 445 | D+2.2 | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2016-10-24 | 824 | D+7.0 | 8 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2016-10-23 | 420 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-21 | 875 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-21 | 1997 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 3704 | D+1.5 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-18 | 800 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-17 | 553 | D+10.4 | 11 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-13 | 660 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 1449 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 1153 | D+4.2 | 5 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2016-10-09 | 806 | D+9.0 | 10 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-09 | 1457 | D+9.0 | 10 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-06 | 997 | D+8.0 | 9 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2016-10-06 | 764 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-05 | 709 | D+12.0 | 13 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-03 | 468 | D+6.5 | 7 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-02 | 402 | D+10.0 | 11 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2016-09-30 | 496 | D+9.0 | 10 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-09-29 | 535 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-09-27 | 886 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-26 | 500 | D+2.9 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-09-23 | 949 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Big Village | 2016-09-22 | 771 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2016-09-21 | 486 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Harper Polling | 2016-09-21 | 500 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-19 | 387 | R+0.8 | 0 |
| Mercyhurst University Center for Applied Politics | 2016-09-18 | 420 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2016-09-14 | 405 | D+8.0 | 9 |
| GQR | 2016-09-14 | 400 | D+8.0 | 9 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-12 | 423 | D+2.3 | 3 |