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Toss-up · 2016 President
Pennsylvania President
In the 2016 Pennsylvania President race, Donald Trump (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.7
Final polls said
D+3.8
33 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harper Polling | EVEN | 0.7 | ✗ |
| 2 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.9 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Rasmussen Reports | R+2.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Remington Research Group | D+1.0 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 5 | Mercyhurst University Center for Applied Politics | D+1.0 | 1.7 | ✗ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 7 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+2.0 | 2.7 | ✗ |
| 8 | SurveyMonkey | D+3.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 9 | Ipsos | D+3.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 10 | Clarity Campaign Labs | D+4.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 11 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+4.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 12 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+4.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 13 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 14 | Big Village | D+4.0 | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 15 | Quinnipiac University | D+5.0 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 16 | Emerson College | D+5.0 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 17 | Gravis Marketing | D+6.0 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 18 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+7.0 | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 19 | GQR | D+8.0 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 20 | Selzer & Co. | D+9.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 21 | Lucid | D+9.0 | 9.7 | ✗ |
| 22 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+11.0 | 11.7 | ✗ |
| 23 | Marist College | D+12.0 | 12.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 77% | 0.593 | ✗ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 79% | 0.624 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 84% | 0.700 | ✗ |
| 7 | New York Times | Dem 89% | 0.792 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
56 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Gravis Marketing2016-11-057
Trafalgar Group2016-11-041
SurveyMonkey2016-11-044
Rasmussen Reports2016-11-041
YouGov2016-11-043
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Pennsylvania President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 0.7 points (R+0.7).
When was the 2016 Pennsylvania President election held?
It was held in November 2016.