Toss-up · 2016 President

South Carolina President

In the 2016 South Carolina President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 14 points.

Actual result

R+14.3

Final polls said

R+6.5

6 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Trafalgar Group	R+15.4	1.2	✓
2	Starboard Communications	R+11.0	3.3	✓
3	YouGov	R+11.0	3.3	✓
4	Ipsos	R+5.8	8.4	✓
5	Gravis Marketing	R+5.0	9.3	✓
6	SurveyMonkey	R+4.0	10.3	✓
7	Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research	R+4.0	10.3	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Inside Elections	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
4	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 91%	0.008	✓
6	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
7	New York Times	Rep 90%	0.010	✓