Actual result
R+14.3
Final polls said
R+6.5
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+9.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trafalgar Group | R+15.4 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Starboard Communications | R+11.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+11.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+9.9 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Ipsos | R+5.8 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Gravis Marketing | R+5.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyMonkey | R+4.0 | 10.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research | R+4.0 | 10.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 6 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | New York Times | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-05 | 1751 | R+5.0 | 9 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1698 | R+4.0 | 10 |
| Starboard Communications | 2016-10-30 | 600 | R+11.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 251 | R+5.8 | 8 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1762 | R+2.0 | 12 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 1298 | R+11.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 304 | R+7.2 | 7 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-22 | 240 | R+4.6 | 10 |
| Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research | 2016-09-22 | 475 | R+4.0 | 10 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2016-09-09 | 1247 | R+15.4 | 1 |