Actual result
R+29.8
Final polls said
R+17.1
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+22.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ipsos | R+22.7 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+22.4 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | R+21.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+18.3 | 11.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Nielson Brothers Polling | R+14.0 | 15.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Remington Research Group | R+11.0 | 18.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+7.0 | 22.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | New York Times | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 459 | R+21.0 | 9 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 114 | R+22.7 | 7 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 298 | R+26.0 | 4 |
| Nielson Brothers Polling | 2016-10-25 | 600 | R+14.0 | 16 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 246 | R+18.3 | 11 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-20 | 1115 | R+11.0 | 19 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2016-10-19 | 400 | R+7.0 | 23 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 103 | R+16.9 | 13 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-19 | 105 | R+15.1 | 15 |