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Toss-up · 2016 President
South Dakota President
In the 2016 South Dakota President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 30 points.
Actual result
R+29.8
Final polls said
R+17.1
7 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ipsos | R+22.7 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | R+21.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+18.3 | 11.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Nielson Brothers Polling | R+14.0 | 15.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Remington Research Group | R+11.0 | 18.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+7.0 | 22.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | New York Times | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
9 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-049
Ipsos2016-10-307
SurveyMonkey2016-10-284
Nielson Brothers Polling2016-10-2516
YouGov2016-10-2011
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 South Dakota President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 29.8 points (R+29.8).
When was the 2016 South Dakota President election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.