Actual result
R+26.0
Final polls said
R+11.8
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+15.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+15.8 | 10.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+14.4 | 11.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | R+13.4 | 12.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Middle Tennessee State University | R+12.0 | 14.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | SSRS | R+11.0 | 15.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | icitizen | R+10.0 | 16.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyMonkey | R+8.0 | 18.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1433 | R+8.0 | 18 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 538 | R+13.4 | 13 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 550 | R+13.0 | 13 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 1729 | R+14.4 | 12 |
| icitizen | 2016-10-16 | 508 | R+10.0 | 16 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-13 | 433 | R+9.7 | 16 |
| Middle Tennessee State University | 2016-09-30 | 472 | R+12.0 | 14 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-29 | 557 | R+14.7 | 11 |
| SSRS | 2016-09-25 | 1000 | R+11.0 | 15 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-15 | 447 | R+13.6 | 12 |