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Toss-up · 2016 President
Texas President
In the 2016 Texas President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
R+9.0
Final polls said
R+8.6
12 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marist College | R+9.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ipsos | R+9.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Rasmussen Reports | R+7.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Dixie Strategies | R+12.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | R+4.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Emerson College | R+14.7 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyMonkey | R+3.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | YouGov | R+3.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs | R+3.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | New York Times | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
22 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-046
Ipsos2016-11-030
Emerson College2016-11-016
Marist College2016-10-310
Dixie Strategies2016-10-283
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Texas President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 9.0 points (R+9.0).
When was the 2016 Texas President election held?
It was held in November 2016.