Toss-up · 2016 President

Texas President

In the 2016 Texas President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 9 points.

Actual result

R+9.0

Final polls said

R+8.6

12 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Marist College	R+9.0	0.0	✓
2	Ipsos	R+9.4	0.4	✓
3	Rasmussen Reports	R+7.0	2.0	✓
4	Dixie Strategies	R+12.1	3.1	✓
5	SurveyUSA	R+4.0	5.0	✓
6	Emerson College	R+14.7	5.7	✓
7	SurveyMonkey	R+3.0	6.0	✓
8	YouGov	R+3.0	6.0	✓
9	University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs	R+3.0	6.0	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Inside Elections	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
4	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
5	New York Times	Rep 96%	0.002	✓
6	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 95%	0.003	✓
7	Cook Political	Rep 90%	0.010	✓