Actual result
R+9.0
Final polls said
R+8.6
12 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marist College | R+9.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ipsos | R+9.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Rasmussen Reports | R+7.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+12.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Dixie Strategies | R+12.1 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | R+4.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Emerson College | R+14.7 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | SurveyMonkey | R+3.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | YouGov | R+3.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs | R+3.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | New York Times | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 7 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (22)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 3009 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2016-11-03 | 646 | R+9.4 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2016-11-01 | 700 | R+14.7 | 6 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-31 | 679 | R+9.0 | 0 |
| Dixie Strategies | 2016-10-28 | 980 | R+12.1 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 2051 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-24 | 504 | R+14.4 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-23 | 800 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-21 | 1031 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 5874 | R+7.9 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-18 | 959 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-17 | 405 | R+13.2 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 1332 | R+2.0 | 7 |
| University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs | 2016-10-11 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-11 | 638 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 422 | R+25.4 | 16 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-03 | 583 | R+16.6 | 8 |
| Dixie Strategies | 2016-09-30 | 780 | R+6.9 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-26 | 464 | R+15.4 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-19 | 462 | R+15.5 | 7 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-12 | 462 | R+22.6 | 14 |
| Emerson College | 2016-09-09 | 700 | R+6.3 | 3 |