Actual result
R+18.1
Final polls said
R+7.7
16 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | R+17.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+20.2 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+12.3 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rasmussen Reports | R+11.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Trafalgar Group | R+10.4 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Y2 Analytics | R+9.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Dan Jones & Associates | R+8.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Ipsos | R+6.8 | 11.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+6.0 | 12.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Gravis Marketing | R+6.0 | 12.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | SurveyMonkey | R+3.0 | 15.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 84% | 0.026 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 7 | New York Times | Rep 73% | 0.073 | ✓ |
Polls (22)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1479 | R+3.0 | 15 |
| YouGov | 2016-11-04 | 762 | R+17.0 | 1 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2016-11-04 | 1350 | R+10.4 | 8 |
| Y2 Analytics | 2016-11-02 | 500 | R+9.0 | 9 |
| Emerson College | 2016-11-01 | 1000 | R+20.2 | 2 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-11-01 | 402 | R+6.0 | 12 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-30 | 750 | R+11.0 | 7 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-30 | 1424 | R+6.0 | 12 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1078 | R+3.0 | 15 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-27 | 286 | R+6.8 | 11 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2016-10-24 | 823 | R+8.0 | 10 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-23 | 750 | R+4.0 | 14 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 676 | R+9.1 | 9 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-18 | 700 | R+2.6 | 15 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2016-10-15 | 818 | R+5.0 | 13 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-15 | 750 | R+2.0 | 16 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-13 | 951 | R+17.0 | 1 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-11 | 403 | R+6.0 | 12 |
| Y2 Analytics | 2016-10-10 | 500 | EVEN | 18 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-03 | 282 | R+6.5 | 12 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2016-09-16 | 820 | R+9.0 | 9 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-12 | 208 | R+16.7 | 1 |