Toss-up · 2016 President

Utah President

In the 2016 Utah President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 18 points.

Actual result

R+18.1

Final polls said

R+7.7

16 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	YouGov	R+17.0	1.1	✓
2	Emerson College	R+20.2	2.1	✓
3	Rasmussen Reports	R+11.0	7.1	✓
4	Trafalgar Group	R+10.4	7.6	✓
5	Y2 Analytics	R+9.0	9.1	✓
6	Dan Jones & Associates	R+8.0	10.1	✓
7	Ipsos	R+6.8	11.3	✓
8	Monmouth University Polling Institute	R+6.0	12.1	✓
9	Gravis Marketing	R+6.0	12.1	✓
10	SurveyMonkey	R+3.0	15.1	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
3	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 84%	0.026	✓
4	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
5	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
6	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
7	New York Times	Rep 73%	0.073	✓