Toss-up · 2016 President

Virginia President

In the 2016 Virginia President race, Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) won by about 5 points.

Actual result

D+5.3

Final polls said

D+6.6

22 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Public Policy Polling	D+5.0	0.3	✓
2	Gravis Marketing	D+5.0	0.3	✓
3	Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research	D+5.0	0.3	✓
4	Lucid	D+5.0	0.3	✓
5	Ipsos	D+4.8	0.5	✓
6	Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership	D+6.0	0.7	✓
7	The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government	D+6.0	0.7	✓
8	Hampton University Center for Public Policy	D+4.0	1.3	✓
9	Emerson College	D+4.0	1.3	✓
10	Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research	D+7.0	1.7	✓
11	Princeton Survey Research Associates International	D+3.0	2.3	✓
12	SurveyMonkey	D+8.0	2.7	✓
13	Remington Research Group	D+2.0	3.3	✓
14	Tarrance Group	D+9.0	3.7	✓
15	YouGov	D+9.1	3.8	✓
16	Quinnipiac University	D+12.0	6.7	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
2	New York Times	Dem 96%	0.002	✓
3	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 92%	0.006	✓
4	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
5	Inside Elections	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
6	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
7	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 86%	0.020	✓