Actual result
D+5.3
Final polls said
D+6.6
22 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+5.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | D+5.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research | D+5.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Lucid | D+5.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Ipsos | D+4.8 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | D+6.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | D+6.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | Hampton University Center for Public Policy | D+4.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | Emerson College | D+4.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor | D+6.9 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 11 | Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | D+7.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 12 | Princeton Survey Research Associates International | D+3.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 13 | SurveyMonkey | D+8.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 14 | Remington Research Group | D+2.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 15 | Tarrance Group | D+9.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 16 | YouGov | D+9.1 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 17 | Quinnipiac University | D+12.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | New York Times | Dem 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
Polls (39)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hampton University Center for Public Policy | 2016-11-04 | 802 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 2183 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2016-11-03 | 1193 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-11-03 | 1238 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2016-11-03 | 534 | D+4.8 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-03 | 1362 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-11-01 | 3076 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2016-10-31 | 654 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-30 | 1106 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | 2016-10-29 | 1024 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-29 | 800 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 2089 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| Hampton University Center for Public Policy | 2016-10-28 | 802 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2016-10-27 | 766 | D+18.0 | 13 |
| Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research | 2016-10-27 | 712 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2016-10-25 | 814 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-23 | 749 | D+12.0 | 7 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-21 | 1787 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-20 | 697 | D+8.8 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 2460 | D+9.1 | 4 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2016-10-18 | 834 | D+12.0 | 7 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-17 | 802 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Tarrance Group | 2016-10-14 | 500 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2016-10-13 | 809 | D+15.0 | 10 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 1644 | D+11.0 | 6 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-11 | 600 | D+2.7 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-06 | 884 | D+10.4 | 5 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2016-10-04 | 814 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| Hampton University Center for Public Policy | 2016-09-30 | 800 | D+12.0 | 7 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2016-09-29 | 892 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-09-27 | 811 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-22 | 849 | D+7.9 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2016-09-22 | 1237 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2016-09-19 | 1003 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-09-17 | 659 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2016-09-15 | 841 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-12 | 435 | D+9.8 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-09-10 | 878 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2016-09-09 | 685 | D+3.0 | 2 |