Actual result
D+26.4
Final polls said
D+26.5
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+28.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RRH Elections | D+26.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ipsos | D+24.9 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Braun Research | D+28.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Castleton Polling Institute | D+28.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+28.6 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyMonkey | D+36.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | D+16.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 454 | D+36.0 | 10 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 106 | D+24.9 | 2 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 436 | D+28.0 | 2 |
| RRH Elections | 2016-10-25 | 1052 | D+26.0 | 0 |
| Braun Research | 2016-10-21 | 603 | D+28.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 191 | D+16.0 | 10 |
| The Castleton Polling Institute | 2016-10-07 | 579 | D+28.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-26 | 102 | D+25.1 | 1 |