Actual result
D+15.7
Final polls said
D+15.0
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+15.7 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Strategies 360 | D+16.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Leger | D+15.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+14.9 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elway Research | D+17.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyMonkey | D+18.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | D+12.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | Ipsos | D+8.2 | 7.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Emerson College | D+5.8 | 9.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leger | 2016-11-05 | 402 | D+15.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1451 | D+18.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-11-01 | 681 | D+12.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 562 | D+8.2 | 7 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 745 | D+19.0 | 3 |
| Elway Research | 2016-10-21 | 502 | D+17.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 1985 | D+15.7 | 0 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-13 | 488 | D+3.8 | 12 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-10 | 750 | D+14.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-03 | 341 | D+17.6 | 2 |
| Strategies 360 | 2016-10-01 | 500 | D+16.0 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2016-09-26 | 700 | D+5.8 | 10 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-22 | 496 | D+13.7 | 2 |
| Leger | 2016-09-13 | 505 | D+10.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-08 | 460 | D+9.9 | 6 |