← all past elections
Toss-up · 2016 President
Wisconsin President
In the 2016 Wisconsin President race, Donald Trump (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.8
Final polls said
D+5.6
17 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | D+2.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | D+3.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | Clarity Campaign Labs | D+4.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+4.5 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 5 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+5.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 6 | Ipsos | D+5.9 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 7 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | D+6.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 8 | Marquette University Law School | D+6.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 9 | Emerson College | D+6.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 10 | Public Policy Polling | D+7.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 11 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+7.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 12 | Remington Research Group | D+8.0 | 8.8 | ✗ |
| 13 | St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | D+8.0 | 8.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 83% | 0.693 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 84% | 0.706 | ✗ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 6 | New York Times | Dem 93% | 0.865 | ✗ |
| 7 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 98% | 0.960 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
27 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Gravis Marketing2016-11-054
SurveyMonkey2016-11-043
Clarity Campaign Labs2016-11-015
Remington Research Group2016-11-019
Public Policy Polling2016-10-318
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Wisconsin President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 0.8 points (R+0.8).
When was the 2016 Wisconsin President election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.