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Toss-up · 2016 President
Wisconsin President
In the 2016 Wisconsin President race, Donald Trump (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.8
Final polls said
D+5.6
17 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | D+2.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | D+3.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | Clarity Campaign Labs | D+4.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+4.5 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 5 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+5.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 6 | Ipsos | D+5.9 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 7 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | D+6.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 8 | Marquette University Law School | D+6.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 9 | Emerson College | D+6.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 10 | Public Policy Polling | D+7.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 11 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+7.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 12 | Remington Research Group | D+8.0 | 8.8 | ✗ |
| 13 | St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | D+8.0 | 8.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 83% | 0.692 | ✗ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 84% | 0.706 | ✗ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 6 | New York Times | Dem 93% | 0.865 | ✗ |
| 7 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 98% | 0.960 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
27 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Gravis Marketing2016-11-054
SurveyMonkey2016-11-043
Clarity Campaign Labs2016-11-015
Remington Research Group2016-11-019
Public Policy Polling2016-10-318
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Wisconsin President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 0.8 points (R+0.8).
When was the 2016 Wisconsin President election held?
It was held in November 2016.