Actual result
R+0.8
Final polls said
D+5.6
17 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+4.8
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | D+2.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | D+3.0 | 3.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | Clarity Campaign Labs | D+4.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+4.5 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+4.8 | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 6 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+5.0 | 5.8 | ✗ |
| 7 | Ipsos | D+5.9 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 8 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | D+6.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 9 | Marquette University Law School | D+6.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 10 | Emerson College | D+6.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 11 | Public Policy Polling | D+7.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 12 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+7.0 | 7.8 | ✗ |
| 13 | Remington Research Group | D+8.0 | 8.8 | ✗ |
| 14 | St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | D+8.0 | 8.8 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.360 | ✗ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 84% | 0.706 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Dem 85% | 0.720 | ✗ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.810 | ✗ |
| 6 | New York Times | Dem 93% | 0.865 | ✗ |
| 7 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 98% | 0.960 | ✗ |
Polls (27)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-05 | 1184 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 2246 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2016-11-01 | 1129 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-11-01 | 2720 | D+8.0 | 9 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-31 | 891 | D+7.0 | 8 |
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 2016-10-31 | 500 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 625 | D+5.9 | 7 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-30 | 1172 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1195 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2016-10-28 | 1255 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-27 | 400 | D+6.0 | 7 |
| Remington Research Group | 2016-10-21 | 1795 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 1794 | D+4.5 | 5 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2016-10-19 | 600 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-18 | 804 | D+12.0 | 13 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-17 | 403 | D+7.0 | 8 |
| St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | 2016-10-15 | 664 | D+8.0 | 9 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-13 | 470 | D+3.5 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 1076 | D+5.0 | 6 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2016-10-08 | 878 | D+7.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-06 | 993 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 2016-10-04 | 500 | D+8.6 | 9 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-04 | 1102 | D+8.0 | 9 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-29 | 687 | D+3.4 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2016-09-19 | 700 | D+6.1 | 7 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2016-09-17 | 677 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-15 | 526 | EVEN | 1 |