Actual result
R+42.1
Final polls said
R+27.5
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+29.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+32.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+29.2 | 12.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+28.3 | 13.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | R+27.0 | 15.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Global Strategy Group | R+27.0 | 15.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Just Win Strategies | R+27.0 | 15.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Ipsos | R+23.8 | 18.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 472 | R+27.0 | 15 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-30 | 180 | R+23.8 | 18 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 321 | R+31.0 | 11 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 472 | R+28.3 | 14 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2016-10-14 | 601 | R+27.0 | 15 |
| Ipsos | 2016-10-10 | 129 | R+16.3 | 26 |
| Ipsos | 2016-09-19 | 173 | R+19.6 | 22 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2016-09-15 | 500 | R+32.0 | 10 |
| Just Win Strategies | 2016-09-09 | 600 | R+27.0 | 15 |