Actual result
R+46.3
Final polls said
R+37.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+40.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+40.3 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | R+39.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center | R+38.0 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | DFM Research | R+35.0 | 11.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | R+32.8 | 13.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | New York Times | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 213 | R+39.0 | 7 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 251 | R+40.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 151 | R+32.8 | 14 |
| University of Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center | 2016-10-08 | 722 | R+38.0 | 8 |
| DFM Research | 2016-09-08 | 402 | R+35.0 | 11 |