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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Alaska Senate
In the 2016 Alaska Senate race, Lisa Murkowski (R) won by about 33 points.
Actual result
R+32.7
Final polls said
R+24.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaska Survey Research | R+37.7 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Moore Information Group | R+40.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | R+22.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-0411
SurveyMonkey2016-10-287
Moore Information Group2016-10-057
Alaska Survey Research2016-09-305
Moore Information Group2016-09-140
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Alaska Senate race?
Lisa Murkowski (R) won, by about 32.7 points (R+32.7).
When was the 2016 Alaska Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.