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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Alaska Senate
In the 2016 Alaska Senate race, Lisa Murkowski (R) won by about 33 points.
Actual result
R+32.7
Final polls said
R+24.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaska Survey Research | R+37.7 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Moore Information Group | R+40.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | R+22.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-0411
SurveyMonkey2016-10-287
Moore Information Group2016-10-057
Alaska Survey Research2016-09-305
Moore Information Group2016-09-140
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Alaska Senate race?
Lisa Murkowski (R) won, by about 32.7 points (R+32.7).
When was the 2016 Alaska Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.