Actual result
R+32.7
Final polls said
R+24.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+29.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+29.8 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Alaska Survey Research | R+37.7 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Moore Information Group | R+40.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | R+22.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 409 | R+22.0 | 11 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 300 | R+26.0 | 7 |
| Moore Information Group | 2016-10-05 | 500 | R+40.0 | 7 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2016-09-30 | 660 | R+37.7 | 5 |
| Moore Information Group | 2016-09-14 | 500 | R+33.0 | 0 |