Toss-up · 2016 Senate

Colorado Senate

In the 2016 Colorado Senate race, Michael Bennet (D) won by about 6 points.

Michael Bennet· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+5.7

Final polls said

D+7.3

10 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	D+5.0	0.7	✓
2	YouGov	D+5.0	0.7	✓
3	SurveyMonkey	D+7.0	1.3	✓
4	Ciruli Associates	D+8.0	2.3	✓
5	Lucid	D+8.0	2.3	✓
6	Gravis Marketing	D+3.0	2.7	✓
7	Public Policy Polling	D+10.0	4.3	✓
8	Big Village	D+10.0	4.3	✓
9	Keating Research	D+11.0	5.3	✓
10	Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research	D+11.0	5.3	✓
11	University of Colorado American Politics Research Lab	D+14.0	8.3	✓
12	Magellan Strategies	D+15.0	9.3	✓
13	Quinnipiac University	D+18.0	12.3	✓
14	Monmouth University Polling Institute	D+18.0	12.3	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	Inside Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 95%	0.003	✓
4	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 92%	0.007	✓
5	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓