← all past elections
Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Colorado Senate
In the 2016 Colorado Senate race, Michael Bennet (D) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
D+5.7
Final polls said
D+7.3
10 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+5.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+5.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | D+7.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Ciruli Associates | D+8.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Lucid | D+8.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Gravis Marketing | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | D+10.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | Big Village | D+10.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | Keating Research | D+11.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+11.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 11 | University of Colorado American Politics Research Lab | D+14.0 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 12 | Magellan Strategies | D+15.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 13 | Quinnipiac University | D+18.0 | 12.3 | ✓ |
| 14 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+18.0 | 12.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
22 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-041
Public Policy Polling2016-11-034
Keating Research2016-11-025
Gravis Marketing2016-11-013
Ciruli Associates2016-10-302
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Colorado Senate race?
Michael Bennet (D) won, by about 5.7 points (D+5.7).
When was the 2016 Colorado Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.