Actual result
D+5.7
Final polls said
D+7.3
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+5.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+5.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | D+7.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Ciruli Associates | D+8.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Lucid | D+8.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+8.2 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Gravis Marketing | D+3.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | Public Policy Polling | D+10.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | Big Village | D+10.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | Keating Research | D+11.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 11 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+11.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 12 | University of Colorado American Politics Research Lab | D+14.0 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 13 | Magellan Strategies | D+15.0 | 9.3 | ✓ |
| 14 | Quinnipiac University | D+18.0 | 12.3 | ✓ |
| 15 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+18.0 | 12.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | Dem 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (22)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 2777 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-11-03 | 704 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| Keating Research | 2016-11-02 | 605 | D+11.0 | 5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-01 | 1125 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2016-10-30 | 550 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-30 | 972 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-30 | 750 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1532 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-27 | 997 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| University of Colorado American Politics Research Lab | 2016-10-21 | 1004 | D+14.0 | 8 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-13 | 685 | D+18.0 | 12 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 956 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2016-10-12 | 500 | D+15.0 | 9 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-12 | 1226 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-03 | 1246 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-01 | 400 | D+18.0 | 12 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-09-27 | 694 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-09-22 | 799 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| Big Village | 2016-09-22 | 784 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-09-17 | 644 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2016-09-16 | 350 | D+11.0 | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2016-09-11 | 600 | D+7.0 | 1 |