Toss-up · 2016 Senate

Florida Senate

In the 2016 Florida Senate race, Marco Rubio (R) won by about 8 points.

Actual result

R+7.7

Final polls said

R+4.8

29 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Marist College	R+8.0	0.3	✓
2	Quinnipiac University	R+7.0	0.7	✓
3	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	R+7.0	0.7	✓
4	The New York Times/Siena College	R+9.0	1.3	✓
5	Suffolk University	R+9.0	1.3	✓
6	TargetSmart	R+6.0	1.7	✓
7	University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab	R+6.0	1.7	✓
8	Dixie Strategies	R+5.6	2.1	✓
9	Selzer & Co.	R+10.0	2.3	✓
10	The Tyson Group	R+5.0	2.7	✓
11	Saint Leo University Polling Institute	R+4.9	2.8	✓
12	SurveyUSA	R+4.0	3.7	✓
13	InsiderAdvantage	R+3.6	4.1	✓
14	Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative	R+3.5	4.2	✓
15	YouGov	R+3.0	4.7	✓
16	Emerson College	R+2.0	5.7	✓
17	Monmouth University Polling Institute	R+2.0	5.7	✓
18	Global Strategy Group	R+2.0	5.7	✓
19	Rasmussen Reports	R+14.0	6.3	✓
20	Cherry Communications	R+14.0	6.3	✓
21	Gravis Marketing	R+1.0	6.7	✓
22	Big Village	R+1.0	6.7	✓
23	Lucid	R+1.0	6.7	✓
24	Public Policy Polling	EVEN	7.7	✗
25	SurveyMonkey	D+1.0	8.7	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
2	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 87%	0.016	✓
3	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
4	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
5	Cook Political	Dem 50%	0.250	—