Actual result
R+7.7
Final polls said
R+4.8
29 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marist College | R+8.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | R+7.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+7.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+6.7 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | The New York Times/Siena College | R+9.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Suffolk University | R+9.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | TargetSmart | R+6.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | R+6.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | Dixie Strategies | R+5.6 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Selzer & Co. | R+10.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 11 | The Tyson Group | R+5.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 12 | Saint Leo University Polling Institute | R+4.9 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 13 | SurveyUSA | R+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 14 | InsiderAdvantage | R+3.6 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 15 | Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | R+3.5 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 16 | YouGov | R+3.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 17 | Emerson College | R+2.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 18 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+2.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 19 | Global Strategy Group | R+2.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 20 | Rasmussen Reports | R+14.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 21 | Cherry Communications | R+14.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 22 | Gravis Marketing | R+1.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 23 | Big Village | R+1.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 24 | Lucid | R+1.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 25 | Public Policy Polling | EVEN | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 26 | SurveyMonkey | D+1.0 | 8.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Rep 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (50)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-11-05 | 884 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 4092 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-11-04 | 525 | R+14.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2016-11-03 | 1188 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-11-01 | 1220 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2016-11-01 | 603 | R+3.6 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-31 | 525 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-29 | 626 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2016-10-29 | 773 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 2809 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| TargetSmart | 2016-10-27 | 718 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2016-10-26 | 815 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-26 | 500 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-26 | 525 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-25 | 779 | R+8.0 | 0 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-25 | 1301 | EVEN | 8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-25 | 742 | EVEN | 8 |
| Dixie Strategies | 2016-10-25 | 698 | R+5.6 | 2 |
| Saint Leo University Polling Institute | 2016-10-24 | 1028 | R+4.9 | 3 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2016-10-23 | 805 | R+10.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2016-10-22 | 1251 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | 2016-10-22 | 836 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | 2016-10-22 | 500 | R+3.5 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2016-10-21 | 875 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 1042 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2016-10-20 | 538 | EVEN | 8 |
| The Tyson Group | 2016-10-19 | 1000 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Cherry Communications | 2016-10-18 | 507 | R+14.0 | 6 |
| Lucid | 2016-10-17 | 892 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-10-13 | 660 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-10-12 | 985 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-12 | 1702 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-12 | 1799 | R+8.0 | 0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2016-10-10 | 533 | R+3.6 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2016-10-04 | 821 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| The Tyson Group | 2016-10-04 | 1000 | R+8.0 | 0 |
| Marist College | 2016-10-04 | 700 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-03 | 600 | R+7.5 | 0 |
| University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | 2016-10-01 | 667 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2016-09-29 | 545 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2016-09-28 | 820 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2016-09-28 | 619 | R+4.2 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2016-09-27 | 826 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| Suffolk University | 2016-09-20 | 500 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-09-18 | 400 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Cherry Communications | 2016-09-17 | 617 | R+4.0 | 4 |
| Saint Leo University Polling Institute | 2016-09-13 | 475 | R+9.5 | 2 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2016-09-12 | 867 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2016-09-09 | 788 | R+11.0 | 3 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2016-09-08 | 800 | R+2.0 | 6 |